Friday, May 13, 2011

3rd Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions


Another extremely even matchup. The relevant facts, as I see them:
  • S.J probably has the better powerplay - they generate a ridiculous number of shots
  • VAN very likely has the better goaltender
  • VAN has home ice advantage
  • Both teams are about equally good at controlling the play at EV
  • VAN is missing a key forward
If those facts give one club a clear advantage, I can't see it. These are probably the two best teams in the league and this should be a great series. I'll take the Canucks in seven games.

Van in 7.


At first glance, Boston seems like the obvious pick here. But the (Patrice) Bergeron injury complicates things. The latest reports indicate that he has yet to resume skating since the incident, so from that it seems as though he might not play at all. That would be a huge loss, as he's probably their best forward, at least by my reckoning.

The issue is whether the Bergeron injury is enough to tip the balance in Tampa Bay's favor. I don't think that it is. Based on regular season play, I have the Bruins as a 61% favorite. While the Bergeron injury necessitates a downward adjusted of that figure, I don't think the loss is profound enough to render the Bruins underdogs. This is supported by the fact that the oddsmakers - who certainly take such things into account - still have Boston as about a 56% favorite.

BOS in 7.


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Quis said...

Makes you a firm beleiver in population control doesn't it? said...

It is quite two times the difference. So It is expected that one win over the other without a problem

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