Thursday, November 4, 2010

Adjusted Corsi w/ Score Close - Updated

A couple of weeks back, I put together a post showing how each team had performed thus far in terms of Corsi (shots directed toward the net at even strength) with the score close (whenever the score margin is zero or one in the first two periods, or zero in the third period or overtime) after making an adjustment for schedule difficulty (the method of adjustment is described in the original post).

Here are the updated rankings as of game 177 (VAN@COL). I should note that Game 124 between the Capitals and Hurricanes wasn't included due to the lack of a play-by-play feed.

(Table abbreviations: C F = Corsi For; C A = Corsi Against; C % = Corsi Percentage; SD RANK = Schedule Difficulty Rank (lower values indicate a more difficult schedule); ADJ = Adjusted)

Some observations:
  • Anaheim, Atlanta and Edmonton are terrible
  • If Florida can maintain their pace, they might be the league's most improved team in this respect
  • What's going on in Washington?
  • Neither the Devils nor the Sabres are as bad as their records would indicate, but even this assessment of their abilities isn't all that positive


Kent W. said...

Glad to see you writing again.

Also St Louis is first overall thus far? Huh.

Dirk Hoag said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Coach pb9617 said...

As for Florida, I'm counting their chances this season.

JLikens said...

Yeah, the Blues have been a bit of a surprise, but it's not totally unexpected.

Their underlying numbers are been improving every season since 2006-07.

They looked dominant against the Sharks last night.

Scott Reynolds said...

St. Louis was very good at this last year too. I had them tied for 5th last season for Corsi with the score tied, and the team is young enough that some improvement is probably to be expected.

The big surprises for me are Boston, Colorado and the aforementioned Florida. I thought that Boston would be very good this year, but so far they've been pretty average at EV with great ST. They should be better once Savard returns, but I really thought they'd be better. Colorado and Florida have both surprised on the other end. I expected both teams to be terrible (like they were last year), but so far, that just hasn't been the case.

JLikens said...

Count me in as someone else who was expecting more from the Bruins. Still pretty early though, I suppose.

Colorado looks decent, too. Their underlying numbers, while not amazing by any stretch of the term, are quite a bit better than last year.

dan said...

do you have any data on the general Corsi advantage of home ice?
In other words, if two equal teams (in Corsi ) play each other what% advantage would the home team have?

thanks Dan

JLikens said...

Last year, the home team had an aggregate corsi percentage of 51.3.

Host Pay Per Head said...

it is quite weird that they reach 2nd and 3rd period without to score at least one.