[For an explanation of the table and how the odds were computed, see here].
S.J - CHI
Although Chicago was the better team during the regular season, the Sharks have, to my eye, looked more impressive through the first two rounds. Chicago has simply not been anywhere near as dominant as I would have anticipated.
That said, I thought Chicago was the best team in the conference before the playoffs started, and, while their recent play has produced some doubt in that regard, that belief still holds true.
Thus, I'm going with the Blackhawks to win the de-facto cup final.
CHI in 6.
PHI - MTL
While both of these teams have received some good fortune in order to be where they are right now, the Habs playoff run has been more luck driven. Given that luck doesn't persist over time, this works in the Flyers favor.
Philadelphia may be the weakest opponent that Montreal has faced thus far, but they're still the better team.
I've enjoyed Montreal's playoff run immensely. During my tenure as a serious fan, I had never, before this year, had the opportunity to watch my team advance beyond the second round. Although the circumstances of their advancement leave much to be desired - as any self-respecting fan would prefer to see his team win on merit -, I'm glad that it's finally happened.
I have a feeling that it ends here, though.
PHI in 6.
Although Chicago was the better team during the regular season, the Sharks have, to my eye, looked more impressive through the first two rounds. Chicago has simply not been anywhere near as dominant as I would have anticipated.
That said, I thought Chicago was the best team in the conference before the playoffs started, and, while their recent play has produced some doubt in that regard, that belief still holds true.
Thus, I'm going with the Blackhawks to win the de-facto cup final.
CHI in 6.
PHI - MTL
While both of these teams have received some good fortune in order to be where they are right now, the Habs playoff run has been more luck driven. Given that luck doesn't persist over time, this works in the Flyers favor.
Philadelphia may be the weakest opponent that Montreal has faced thus far, but they're still the better team.
I've enjoyed Montreal's playoff run immensely. During my tenure as a serious fan, I had never, before this year, had the opportunity to watch my team advance beyond the second round. Although the circumstances of their advancement leave much to be desired - as any self-respecting fan would prefer to see his team win on merit -, I'm glad that it's finally happened.
I have a feeling that it ends here, though.
PHI in 6.
5 comments:
Hey JLikens, thanks for putting these up. I have comments about the Western final.
Since you have Chicago with at least 54-46 odds and SJ has home ice, that says on neutral ice they'd be around 59-41?
That seems a bit high to me. Chicago dominated territorially at even strength by around a 58-42 clip in the regular season, against a weighted spread of teams. San Jose is probably better than that weighted spread of teams that Chicago faced. Although there are special teams to consider too, which I didn't take into account (although I know San Jose was tops at 5on4 going by shots/60, I'm not sure how they are at drawing penalties though).
On the finishing/saving ability side of things I have to think San Jose doesn't get outclassed in either. Although I could be wrong. In any case using the goal differential as the predictor you have the odds at 65-35.
Chicago's no doubt the better team but I would have though San Jose's home ice would have shifted the odds back to near-coin-flip (say 51-49). Your thoughts?
Thanks for the comment, R O.
It appears that you've got the odds reversed. The 65-35 estimate is based on the underlying numbers model; the 54-46 estimate is based on regular season goal ratio, corrected for schedule difficulty and empty net goals.
"Since you have Chicago with at least 54-46 odds and SJ has home ice, that says on neutral ice they'd be around 59-41?"
Keep in mind that the 5% margin for home ice advantage only applies to individual games. Over the course of a seven-game series, home ice advantages averages out to between 1-2% (indeed, it does not even factor into things at all if the series ends in 4 or 6 games).
If I re-run the numbers without taking into account home-ice, San Jose's odds fall to 43.6% and 33.8%.
"That seems a bit high to me. Chicago dominated territorially at even strength by around a 58-42 clip in the regular season, against a weighted spread of teams. San Jose is probably better than that weighted spread of teams that Chicago faced. Although there are special teams to consider too, which I didn't take into account (although I know San Jose was tops at 5on4 going by shots/60, I'm not sure how they are at drawing penalties though)."
I agree that the actual odds are closer to 50-50.
The reason that the teams are so far apart if the underlying numbers model is applied (65-35) is mostly based on the fact that Chicago's corsi% with the score tied in the regular season was much better than San Jose's.
The Blackhawks were at about 57%, whereas the Sharks were just a shade south of 52%.
As both teams are above average in other areas of the game, Chicago's predicted winning percentage comes out to 62%, with the Sharks at about 55%.
As mentioned, the difference is a lot closer if pythagorean expectation is used. The Hawks were at about 63% during the regular season; the Sharks about 60%.
Damn, rookie mistake.
I had another big comment written but I lost it. Essentially - if the odds on neutral ice are 56-44, for the series, the single-game odds (also on neutral ice) would be more even - right?
That's the crux of what I was thinking about (I thin), these teams seem more even to me but I usually think about these matters on a single-game level.
"I had another big comment written but I lost it. Essentially - if the odds on neutral ice are 56-44, for the series, the single-game odds (also on neutral ice) would be more even - right?"
Yes, that's correct.
Well it is the sad part of the prediction that there are some variables that you can't account for.
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