Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Expected Winning Percentage by Team

In response to a question raised in the comments to my post on playoff probabilities, I figured that it would be useful if I posted each team's expected winning percentage according to the two described methods.

The teams are ranked according to pythagorean winning percentage.


I've altered the chart so as to include even strength goals in the calculation of Corsi with the score tied. The values don't change all that much -- in fact, hardly at all, but I figured that I'd post it if only for accuracy's sake.


Sunny Mehta said...

how is boston's underlying# win% so high?

i have their fenwick on the road w/score tied as being worse than PIT, and their special teams as being about average.

JLikens said...

A couple of reasons.

1. I used Corsi rather than Fenwick (the Pens are indeed better if Fenwick is used).

2. I just realized that I forgot to include EV goals with the score tied when calculating the numbers (I ought to correct that).

3. The model assumes that Rask's true EV save percentage is 0.923, so they're above average in that respect.

Host Pay Per Head said...

I have to admit that those methods are quite accurate because they almost have the same value.