While my strength of schedule adjustment corrected for game location (i.e. whether, from a particular team's perspective, the game was being played at home or on the road), it did not account for back-to-games. As it turns out, this was a mistake on my part -- the effect of back-to-games on Corsi (with the score close) is much larger than the effect of game location.
GP = Games played; The number of games played in the 2010-11 season which meet the criterion in the left hand column
R Corsi = Road Corsi; The number of shots directed at the net at even strength by the road team
H Corsi = Home Corsi; The number of shots directed at the net at even strength by the home team
R Corsi % = Road Corsi Percentage; the Corsi percentage from the road team's vantage
The above table shows how game location and whether or not the game is a back to back for either team have interacted to effect Corsi percentage with the score close in games played during the 2010-11 season thus far (up to and including the 268th game).
Firstly, in games in which one team played the night before and the other team did not, the road team carries the burden roughly 75% of the time. I guess the league wants to give the home team every advantage it can without making it seem too obvious.
Secondly, the effect of back-to-back games on Corsi percentage with the score close is considerable -- approximately 0.04. In other words, an average team playing a likewise average team that played the previous night can expect to achieve Corsi results on par with those of the 2009-10 Boston Bruins (a strong, if underrated, team). If the positions are reversed, however, it can expect to perform more along the lines of the 2009-10 Tampa Bay Lightning. That's a sizable difference.
Thirdly, the effect of game location, in and of itself, is pretty small. In games in which both teams are playing on at least one day's rest, the home team only marginally outshoots its counterpart.
With these findings in mind, I decided to modify my method of correcting for scheduling difficulty by accounting for the effect of back-to-back games in addition to game location. Here are the results for all games played as November 17.
- The Capitals raw numbers are ok, but they really get killed by the schedule adjustment. I think that they've played the Thrashers three times already
- Chicago's numbers might come across as underwhelming, given where they were last year, but they're improved in this regard as the season has progressed. I expect that to continue
- The Oilers are a real outlier. They're 0.095 from the mean when the next furthest team is a mere 0.064. Things don't look good
- The Wings may not be what they once were in terms of territorial dominance, but they've still managed to best everyone else. It's hard not to have some degree of admiration for that club