tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post7028143835983619419..comments2024-03-17T01:16:08.920-07:00Comments on Objective NHL: Adjusted Corsi w/ Score Close - Part IIIJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-80183917490176023092013-05-03T13:27:53.176-07:002013-05-03T13:27:53.176-07:00I didn't expect that there is a variance in th...I didn't expect that there is a variance in the strength of the schedule but at least it proves that it is something that it makes a difference. Host Pay Per Headhttp://www.hostpph.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-28146788323411468002010-11-29T23:12:14.318-08:002010-11-29T23:12:14.318-08:00Two points:
1. The term "meaningful" is...Two points:<br /><br />1. The term "meaningful" is context sensitive. In my post at behindthenet, I meant to say that the magnitude of the schedule difficulty adjustment for the average team isn't significant enough to account for the discrepancy between the predicted model and actual results. <br /><br />For the purposes of team evaluation, however, the adjustment is more meaningful.<br /><br />2. The league wide variation in strength of schedule decreases as the season progresses. The fact that correcting for schedule difficulty at the season's end may not be worthwhile doesn't necessarily mean that doing so at this point in the year is pointless.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-89562949324748023522010-11-29T20:07:50.420-08:002010-11-29T20:07:50.420-08:00You posted over on Behind the net that corsi stren...You posted over on Behind the net that corsi strength of schedule for Colorado is not meaningful over a season.<br />Am I missing something? If not, why go to the trouble to adjust the totals in this post?<br />Just wondering?<br />thanksLortimerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17894839800274023240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-10497820127943635562010-11-24T14:24:36.405-08:002010-11-24T14:24:36.405-08:00(I suppose it's more of an open question as to...<i>(I suppose it's more of an open question as to whether such a strategy benefits the team as a whole).</i><br /><br />It probably does. It would help if they were better players on the 4th, but burying the pluggers puts guys like the Sedins in really nice circumstances and they are good enough to make other teams pay for it.Kent W.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15679878875910837307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-43010663121839361632010-11-20T23:32:15.574-08:002010-11-20T23:32:15.574-08:00Yeah, the Canucks 4th line forwards have been subs...Yeah, the Canucks 4th line forwards have been substantially underwater in terms of Corsi for several years running now. <br /><br />The fact that Vigneault prefers to start them off in their own end does nothing to help them in this regard. <br /><br />(I suppose it's more of an open question as to whether such a strategy benefits the team as a whole).JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-70876828018915663872010-11-20T13:30:49.668-08:002010-11-20T13:30:49.668-08:00Interesting to see that Vancouver manages to finis...Interesting to see that Vancouver manages to finish fourth despite having the worst puck possession line in the league as their fourth line. I guess their limited ice time doesn't hurt them that much in the grand scheme of things.<br /><br />Thanks for the update.pitselehnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-27210042442582035792010-11-19T13:42:15.173-08:002010-11-19T13:42:15.173-08:00Thanks for running the numbers, Ryan.
I suppose t...Thanks for running the numbers, Ryan.<br /><br />I suppose this serves as a lesson to never rely on 1/5 of a season as a sample when attempting to draw such conclusions. <br /><br />In any event, your results make much more sense -- we'd expect the home team to have <i>some</i> 'inherent' advantage with respect to outshooting, even if that advantage is exaggerated by scheduling factors.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-46410139854196565582010-11-19T13:31:49.627-08:002010-11-19T13:31:49.627-08:00So here's what I get since 07/08. This is exc...So here's what I get since 07/08. This is excluding the four games that are missing play-by-plays. "Home" means _only_ the home team had played the night (or afternoon) before, and similarly for "road". "Both" means that both teams played the night before. The percentage is the percentage of wins/goals/5-on-5 corsi in favour of the home team. (I'm counting shootout wins as wins and winning a shootout counts as a goal for. This shouldn't change the results over so much data.)<br /><br /> Win% Goal% Corsi%<br />Neither: 54.35% 52.21% 51.21%<br />Home: 54.29% 52.15% 50.15%<br />Road: 57.99% 54.62% 52.47%<br />Both: 55.77% 54.08% 52.13%<br /><br />Looks to me like playing back to back is nearly exactly as big a disadvantage in terms of 5-on-5 corsi as playing on the road without a back to back.RyanVnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-89883226773366179542010-11-19T11:03:41.061-08:002010-11-19T11:03:41.061-08:00It's funny, because I was literally just looki...It's funny, because I was literally just looking into this last night and concluded the exact opposite: that location mattered more than back-to-back. I looked at wins/losses and goal differential rather than corsi, but I also looked at every game since 2007/08.<br /><br />For what it's worth, the win/loss data makes it look like this year so far is an outlier. Road teams, on non-b2bs, this year have won 47.7% compared to 45.7% over the last three-and-a-quarter seasons. And road teams on b2bs have won only 38.2% compared to 42.5% since 07/08.<br /><br />I'll check into it with corsi and see what I find.RyanVnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-37684301952360494402010-11-19T09:30:27.304-08:002010-11-19T09:30:27.304-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.com