The first chart shows how each team in the league has fared thus far in terms of adjusted winning percentage. Adjusted winning percentage is essentially each team’s Pythagorean Expectation, with the exception that, instead of goals for and goals against, I use adjusted goals for and adjusted goals against. In computing each team’s adjusted GF and adjusted GA, I simply take each team’s actual GF and GA, subtract shootout goals and empty netters, and then make a second order correction for schedule difficulty. In determining schedule difficulty, oppositional strength is determined through the goal differential of the opponent, the location of the game (i.e. whether it’s a home or away game), and the circumstances of the game – namely, whether or not it’s the second half of a back-to-back for the road team.
If you compare these rankings to the actual standings, most teams are similarly positioned. There is, however, one notable outlier.
The Rangers are currently 9th in the league in points per game, yet 26th by this metric. Not surprisingly, they’ve had a ton of success in the shootout so far (record: 9-4), which is basically equivalent to sheer luck. While some may point to the Rangers shot differential, especially at EV, as evidence of them being not that bad of a team, I’m inclined to disagree. Reason being: they're in the red in terms of expected goals, which suggests that they’ve been below average in terms of shot quality for, shot quality against, or both.
Of course, there are a few teams who can be labeled as either lucky or unlucky in general – notwithstanding the fact that that these rankings aren’t too different from the standings. In other words, teams who are either better or worse than these rankings would suggest.
In terms of teams that probably aren’t as good as their adjusted winning percentage would indicate, I’m thinking of
And for teams in which the opposite is true, I’m thinking of OTT,
Anyway, here the playoff probabilities for all 30 teams (updated on