I plan to put up a post on the probabilities for each 1st round series either tomorrow or Wednesday during the day. In the meantime, I figured I'd throw up these charts showing the cumulative score tied corsi totals for all of the playoff teams.
There are eight charts in all, one for each series.
Two of the league's strongest teams will engage in a first round battle. Should be a great series.
Both of these teams have improved in this measure as the year has progressed, although San Jose exhibits the more extreme profile - the Sharks have been ridiculously good since the halfway mark.
Detroit looks like the better EV team by a fair margin, actual goal differentials notwithstanding.
I've noticed that the Ducks are getting labeled as a "hot" team, but the evidence doesn't support that. They've been terrible territorially at EV all season, including down the stretch. NSH is the better team.
Not much to say here. The Caps seem inconsistent whereas the Rangers have been consistently in the red.
Two teams seemingly going in opposite directions, but Philly is still better on aggregate.
Shocking. The Bruins were +415 better than the Habs by this measure in 09-10.
T.B is pretty underwhelming here but they blocked a tonne of shots at EV. Injuries have hurt PIT.EDIT: Accidentally used Philly's numbers for Pittsburgh. The chart has been corrected.
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Good stuff, as always. Do you have TOI spent with the score tied numbers? Teams like Philly and Vancouver (which, if my perception is correct, tend to get early leads) may be under-rated by the graphs, and teams like Washington which spend lots of time with the score tied may be over-rated.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I don't have have TOI data for 2010-11.
ReplyDeleteBut you're absolutely right in that this would seem to penalize very good teams who (presumably) played less at EV with the score tied.
I actually have such TOI data available for 2008-09 and prior years.
Here's how teams ranked in terms of score tied TOI (overall, not just EV) that season (in descending order)
NSH
NYR
CBJ
BOS
ANA
PIT
OTT
MIN
STL
L.A
FLA
COL
CAR
PHI
CHI
MTL
S.J
WSH
T.B
ATL
EDM
BUF
CGY
PHX
NYI
VAN
DET
TOR
DAL
N.J
And for 2007-08:
NYI
N.J
T.B
ATL
S.J
WSH
STL
CBJ
COL
EDM
ANA
VAN
MIN
CGY
TOR
FLA
NSH
PHX
DET
PIT
DAL
L.A
BOS
MTL
PHI
NYR
BUF
CHI
CAR
OTT
That gives one an impression of how large the effect is.
Fascinating stuff. What percentage of total Corsi events would you say that even-strength Tied Corsi covers? I'm curious as to how much of the game is captured here.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I wonder if Close Corsi would have a higher predictive ability if you factored in whatever natural bias occurs from being up a goal or down a goal. It seems to me that maintaining a lead or pressing to get back in it is just as indicative of a team's ability. For a significant portion of the game, a team is going to be doing one or the other.
I'm just going to chalk this up to the Rangers block too many shots and the MSG scorer gives them credit for even more.
ReplyDeleteHead in the sand makes me feel much better.
"Fascinating stuff. What percentage of total Corsi events would you say that even-strength Tied Corsi covers? I'm curious as to how much of the game is captured here."
ReplyDeleteAbout 35%.
"Also, I wonder if Close Corsi would have a higher predictive ability if you factored in whatever natural bias occurs from being up a goal or down a goal. It seems to me that maintaining a lead or pressing to get back in it is just as indicative of a team's ability. For a significant portion of the game, a team is going to be doing one or the other."
Score tied corsi is the most reflective of a team's abilities in theory, but this needs to be balanced against the lower reliability of the data as compared to figures that are based on all game situations.
The solution, as you might be alluding to, is to use the overall figures but adjust each team's numbers based on how often they've trailed and led over the course of the season.
The resulting metric - which I would term adjusted corsi - has more predictive power than either score tied corsi or overall corsi, which is what we'd expect.
"I'm just going to chalk this up to the Rangers block too many shots and the MSG scorer gives them credit for even more.
ReplyDeleteHead in the sand makes me feel much better."
I'm not sure if you were being entirely facetious, but...
NYR 2010-11:
% EV Blocks for at Home: 46.8%
% EV Blocks for on Road: 44.4%
All Teams 2010-11
% EV Blocks for at Home: 51%
% EV Blocks for on Road: 49%
The Rangers block more shots than the opposition at EV, but not because of scorer bias.
Is there any site that has a list of team Corsi ratings (the actual numbers) up through the 2010-2011 regular season?
ReplyDeleteNo, but I could post something.
ReplyDeleteJust tell me what information you want and I'll throw something up.
I'd love to see all of the Corsi statistics on this site. Can you post them up for 2010-11? Also, what's the best way to track this for the upcoming season?
ReplyDeleteI thought that more teams were more comparable but only for the two chart for the rest they have a huge difference.
ReplyDelete