tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post5451012555484889445..comments2024-08-31T00:17:58.675-07:00Comments on Objective NHL: Team Even Strength Shooting TalentJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-46035508736150481832013-05-03T12:34:48.109-07:002013-05-03T12:34:48.109-07:00It is quite impressive that you can predict with t...It is quite impressive that you can predict with that kind of accuracy playoff matches.Hostpph.comhttp://www.hostpph.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-81023464699683010392011-06-02T22:48:41.831-07:002011-06-02T22:48:41.831-07:00Actually, a more careful check shows that there wa...Actually, a more careful check shows that there was an error of sorts. <br /><br />When attempting to identify the best possible estimate, I used increments based on the number of EV shots taken by the team in question in 2010-11 (i.e. if a team took 1000 EV shots, the only numbers checked would have been 0.001 (1/1000), 0.002 (2/1000), 0.003 (3/1000), 0.004 (4/1000), etc).<br /><br />Using increments of 0.0001 allows for more precision with respect to the best possible estimate. <br /><br />If I do that, I get a talent estimate of 0.83 for Philadelphia and 0.833 for Dallas. <br /><br />So you're right - Dallas should be #1 in terms of estimated EV shooting talent.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-23972638612261880172011-05-31T20:20:46.195-07:002011-05-31T20:20:46.195-07:00It's because the Flyers took more shots than D...It's because the Flyers took more shots than Dallas. <br /><br />More shots increases the probability that the observed performance corresponds to underlying talent.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-37743211022609020692011-05-31T12:47:03.668-07:002011-05-31T12:47:03.668-07:00How is it possible for the rankings for estimated ...How is it possible for the rankings for estimated talent to be different from the rankings for observed performance? (Philadelphia was observed at #2 shooting percentage but estimated talent of #1.) Is that just a little noise in the simulation?Eric T from BSHnoreply@blogger.com