tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post2472109164308637790..comments2024-03-20T08:45:46.965-07:00Comments on Objective NHL: Even Strength Shooting PercentageJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-72790510820291409242013-05-03T15:11:06.701-07:002013-05-03T15:11:06.701-07:00Well I have to admit that it is quite hard to look...Well I have to admit that it is quite hard to look to those chart because you have to click them to see them bigger. Hostpphhttp://www.hostpph.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-71876289912141196342013-02-27T05:03:27.035-08:002013-02-27T05:03:27.035-08:00Hey, great blog, but I don’t understand how to add...Hey, great blog, but I don’t understand how to add your site in my rss reader. Can you Help me please. <a href="http://proxiesforrent.com" rel="nofollow">buy proxies</a><br /><br />Claudio Timberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00880066121135513407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-68230068951882355742011-11-07T02:55:56.916-08:002011-11-07T02:55:56.916-08:00In this blog is very nice post.so great finance ad...In this blog is very nice post.so great finance advise to them.Buy Cheap Maxon Cinema 4D R12 Studiohttp://top-software.com.ua/products/maxon-cinema-4d-r12-studio.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-18678479558205546522011-08-03T07:22:42.098-07:002011-08-03T07:22:42.098-07:00Wow, nice post,there are many person searching abo...Wow, nice post,there are many person searching about that now they will find enough resources by your post.Thank you for sharing to us.Please one more post about that..xanaxhttp://xanax.namenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-9325949721678962622009-02-11T22:00:00.000-08:002009-02-11T22:00:00.000-08:00My name is Mike and I run www.NHLsnipers.com. Just...My name is Mike and I run www.NHLsnipers.com. Just curious if you would like to swap links.<BR/><BR/>Let me know in a quick comment on my site or email me: nhlsnipers at gmail.<BR/><BR/>If so, send me the link you want listed.<BR/><BR/>ThanksMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06017067672697998654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-40618017849872504872009-02-08T20:39:00.000-08:002009-02-08T20:39:00.000-08:00Yeah, you should have said Penguins. I'd really li...<I>Yeah, you should have said Penguins. I'd really like to know what the deal is with them. They got outshot badly at ES last season and still posted a positive goal diff due to good percentages, and they're up to the same old shtick this season.<BR/><BR/>Is it luck? Is it a style of play thing? Is it driven by skilled players? I mean, heck, they really only have two super-skilled players.</I><BR/><BR/>It was definitely partly luck, although I'm not sure to what extent.<BR/><BR/>For example, the Pens had far and away the best PDO number in the league last season, which strongly indicative of good luck.<BR/><BR/>That said, I'm more inclined to view their high EV SV% as being the result of good luck than I am with respect to their EV S%.<BR/><BR/>Both of their goalies in Conklin and Fleury posted excellent save percentages at EV, despite neither of them having excellent track records in that regard. Furthermore, Ryder's data showed that the Pens were roughly average in SQA last season, so it wasn't as if the team was especially good at limiting scoring chances. Both of those factors led me, at the time, to believe that their 0.930 team save percentage at EV was primary the result of good fortune. The fact that that number has entirely regressed to the mean this season basically confirms that suspicion. <BR/><BR/>The EV S%, on the other hand, might actually be (partially) sustainable. Team style is definitely relevant. Having watched a fair number of Pens games over the past two seasons, Pittsburgh as a team is relatively reluctant to shoot the puck when they have possession in the offensive zone. The surfeit of offensive talent -- even if basically limited to two players -- doesn't hurt either. <BR/><BR/>Although it's possible that their low EV SF could be due to them simply getting dominated territorially, the fact that they tend to draw more penalties than they take suggests that other factors are at play. It's also worth mentioning that there is a mild negative correlation between EV S% and EV SF at the team level. Of course, they're currently shooting something around 0.105, which is ridiculously good and not realistically sustainable. But if someone were to suggest that their true EV S% was in the 9-10% range, I'd find it difficult to disagree. <BR/><BR/><I>And speaking of Crosby and Malkin, I was doing some comparing of them to Ovechkin. What is the deal? Ovechkin's Corsi is like +282 and Crosby's is like -40 and yet their on ice GF and GA are almost the same. lol. Wtf? Is this being driven by team? (Personnel as well as system?) I.e. - if we put Crosby on Washington would he have a SIGNIFICANTLY better Corsi?</I><BR/><BR/>Well, it's almost entirely the result of Crosby having the better on-ice EV S%. Their on-ice EV SV% and on-ice are virtually identical.<BR/>Again, stylistic differences at the team level (and differences in style of play between Crosby and Ovechkin, for that matter) are relevant here. I have no doubt that Crosby's corsi would be better if he played on the Capitals, seeing as how:<BR/><BR/>a) he plays on a team that just gets murdered in terms of corsi<BR/>b) he's has one of the best corsi numbers on his own team (once controlling for ice time)<BR/><BR/>Given all of that, I think that your theory about decomposing corsi into SDF and SDA is an attractive one, at least for skilled players (as you said). While EV SA might be a suitable proxy for territorial play, it seems that the same does not necessarily apply to EV SF. Players do have some ability to affect their on-ice EV S % -- thus, two players (Crosby and Malkin, in this case) can have vastly discrepant EV SF numbers while nevertheless having similar rates of offensive production. This, of course, is attributable to the player with less EV SF having the superior shooting percentage, which , in some case, would merely be the result of team/player stylistic differences, rather than luck or randonmess. Seems plausible enough.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-3173140772648580852009-02-06T09:41:00.000-08:002009-02-06T09:41:00.000-08:00Yeah, you should have said Penguins. I'd really li...Yeah, you should have said Penguins. I'd really like to know what the deal is with them. They got outshot badly at ES last season and still posted a positive goal diff due to good percentages, and they're up to the same old shtick this season.<BR/><BR/>Is it luck? Is it a style of play thing? Is it driven by skilled players? I mean, heck, they really only have two super-skilled players.<BR/><BR/>And speaking of Crosby and Malkin, I was doing some comparing of them to Ovechkin. What is the deal? Ovechkin's Corsi is like +282 and Crosby's is like -40 and yet their on ice GF and GA are almost the same. lol. Wtf? Is this being driven by team? (Personnel as well as system?) I.e. - if we put Crosby on Washington would he have a SIGNIFICANTLY better Corsi?<BR/><BR/>You know, one thing that did occur to me is that maybe instead of using Corsi (which is an overall +/- of shots directed at net), we should break it down into SDF and SDA (shots directed for and shots directed against) or even SDF/60 and SDA/60 or even the ratio of [SDF/60]/[SDA/60]. <BR/><BR/>Because, in theory, let's you have two players (we'll say they've played the same number of minutes). Player A has 100 SDF and 50 SDA (Corsi of 50), and player B has 70 SDF and 50 SDA (Corsi of 20). Player B is a very skilled offensive player and has a much better S% than player A. Since the two players have the same SDA, they could actually be dominating possession equally, it's just that when Player B is in the offensive zone, he's looking for better shots.<BR/><BR/>I have no idea if there's evidence of this sort of thing in practice today, but it occurred to me because when I was comparing Ovie to Crosby I noticed that their shots against aren't all that much different. Their shots for are pretty different, but that could be an indication of style more than an indication of possession dominance.<BR/><BR/>If I had to guess, there are probably only a few players who are skilled enough for this theory to make sense for though. For most players, a raw Corsi might be just as effective.Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-86512027573227844662009-02-05T12:04:00.000-08:002009-02-05T12:04:00.000-08:00Heh. I probably should have actually checked the ...Heh. I probably should have actually checked the Hawks' (even strength) shot differential before implying that they might not be a legitimately good team. <BR/><BR/>As it happens, they're pretty impressive in that regard. <BR/><BR/>My mistake.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-61269996194101203082009-02-01T16:45:00.000-08:002009-02-01T16:45:00.000-08:00Interesting post at the forum.The whole issue real...Interesting post at the forum.<BR/><BR/>The whole issue really causes one to wonder about the differences in underlying ability between a 'good' percentage team and a 'bad' one, especially if the differences are especially pronounced at EV.<BR/><BR/>I mean, with teams like Detroit and San Jose -- teams that are so dominant territorially and on the shot clock -- there can be hardly any doubt at all that such teams are just fundamentally good hockey teams.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, teams like the Hawks and Bruins may be elite in terms of goal differential, but one has to wonder how good they actually are, given the fact that their success thus far has almost entirely been the product of the percentages.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-27986742069359294302009-02-01T10:43:00.000-08:002009-02-01T10:43:00.000-08:00Awesome. I meant to share something similar to thi...Awesome. I meant to share something similar to this with you guys. A couple months ago, on my publisher's poker forum, I was commenting about shooting percentage in an off-topic sub-forum's NHL Hockey thread. A poster created the following chart...<BR/><BR/>http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=7402193&postcount=698<BR/><BR/><BR/>Here's the take home point:<BR/><BR/>"So after the whole season last year, if you gave an average team an average season and let them ride ordinary variance they could at the end of the year rank anywhere in the top 25 in goals per game."Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.com