tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32993119266336214682024-03-18T00:16:08.065-07:00Objective NHLJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger101125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-41798953239918332912011-06-25T17:24:00.000-07:002011-06-25T18:04:09.250-07:00How often does the Best Team Win?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:relyonvml/> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-CA</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> 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mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} </style> <![endif]-->This year’s Stanley Cup Final concluded with a somewhat surprising outcome.<span style=""> </span>The Vancouver Canucks – who were widely regarded as the league’s best club – were defeated by the underdog Bruins. <p class="MsoNormal">To those who regard the NHL playoffs as a competition designed to determine the league’s best team, the result can mean only one thing – that the Bruins were the best team all along, and the Canucks mere pretenders. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">A more reasonable explanation, however, is that shit happens over the course of a seven game series and, because of that, the better team doesn’t always win.<span style=""> </span>The Canucks were better than Boston during the regular season, and were likely better in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well.<span style=""> </span>They were better than Boston last year and there’s a good chance that they’ll do better next year.<span style=""> </span>They were probably the better team.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The Canucks may or may not have been the best team in the league, but if they were in fact better than Boston, then that means that a team other than the best team in the league won the cup.<span style=""> </span>That raises an interesting question – how often does the best team in the league end up winning the cup?</p> <p class="MsoNormal">(The answer, of course, will vary as a function of the level of parity that exists in the league.<span style=""> </span>Because the level of league parity has varied over time as a function of era, we’ll confine our answer to the post-lockout years).</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Unfortunately, the question cannot be answered directly due to the fact that it’s not possible to identify the league’s best team in any given season with any certitude.<span style=""> </span>One can only speak in terms of probability and educated guesses.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">It is, however, possible to arrive at an approximate answer through assigning artificial win probabilities to each team, simulating a large number of seasons, and looking at how often the team with the best win probability ends up winning the cup.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">This exercise is made possible by the fact that the distribution in team ability – which we’ll define as true talent goal ratio –can be ascertained through examining the observed spread in goal ratio and identifying the curve which best produces that spread when run through the appropriate simulator.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">In order to generate an observed distribution of results, I randomly selected 40 games from every team and looked at how each of them performed with respect to goal percentage (empty netters excluded) over that sample.<span style=""> </span>This exercise was performed 2000 times for each of the six post lockout seasons.<span style=""> </span>The following curve resulted:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdqqgsKuAvNItCMep3k-38g27imRXfQGwYF91klBrCZhQEnvve9tnFTPiZqzpLMpTGAqcWGojZCiKkwBDQF87aHbfCLe4SD9IxVxN5NWkRoeEkHzei1ljO14ZqmBQWmxzDBj0MuE591A7X/s1600/ObservedDistributioninGoalRatio.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 211px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdqqgsKuAvNItCMep3k-38g27imRXfQGwYF91klBrCZhQEnvve9tnFTPiZqzpLMpTGAqcWGojZCiKkwBDQF87aHbfCLe4SD9IxVxN5NWkRoeEkHzei1ljO14ZqmBQWmxzDBj0MuE591A7X/s400/ObservedDistributioninGoalRatio.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622320497480106002" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The likely ability distribution is the curve shown below – a normal distribution with a mean of 0.5 and standard deviation of 0.03.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-jhtKh_Mw7pRkeQdnCAntpeL-VCsUo8OtqZZcGp_URjw1tNplX7UPsR22XDPxGCfAG8VwriLRwxaNxYoCOC7xEcdEuNoG5PZw-Z92ufHEWQ99CTIqUXxbelP2J1_KcwTwz-NBRWDp106q/s1600/GoalRatioAbilityDistribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 185px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-jhtKh_Mw7pRkeQdnCAntpeL-VCsUo8OtqZZcGp_URjw1tNplX7UPsR22XDPxGCfAG8VwriLRwxaNxYoCOC7xEcdEuNoG5PZw-Z92ufHEWQ99CTIqUXxbelP2J1_KcwTwz-NBRWDp106q/s400/GoalRatioAbilityDistribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622321033583055602" border="0" /></a><span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">If a large number of half-seasons are simulated through assigning artificial goal percentages based on the above ability distribution, the spread in simulated results closely matches the observed results displayed in the first graph.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk3VXTMaR6XlKbucuHh_STB8hwnEp8SpUX9mgzu26-xnlWmRUFALiHOPrxn-R7DaEVYpHY64-I5hKr7khYF-C-K_IoXtZUuhhF3pko3bvFSeUQUz1IqkUkuQg3Pbut2hJbL4WLksGRcaNl/s1600/Goalratioobservedversussimulated.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 199px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk3VXTMaR6XlKbucuHh_STB8hwnEp8SpUX9mgzu26-xnlWmRUFALiHOPrxn-R7DaEVYpHY64-I5hKr7khYF-C-K_IoXtZUuhhF3pko3bvFSeUQUz1IqkUkuQg3Pbut2hJbL4WLksGRcaNl/s400/Goalratioobservedversussimulated.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622321515401943810" border="0" /></a><span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">As the ability distribution can be used to generate results that closely parallel those observed in reality, it can also be used in order to answer the question posed earlier in the post – that is, the probability of the best team in the league winning the cup in any given season.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Here’s how the simulations were conducted:</p> <ul><li>For each simulated season, every team was assigned an artificial goal percentage based on the ability distribution produced above </li><li>The artificial goal percentages were, in turn, used to produce GF/game and GA/game values for each team</li><li>GF/game values were calculated by multiplying a team’s goal percentage by 5.49 (5.49 being the approximate average number of non empty net goals scored per game in the post-lockout era)</li><li>GA/game values were calculated by subtracting a team’s GF/game value from 5.49</li><li>All 1230 games from the 2010-11regular season were then simulated, with a score being generated for each individual game </li><li>The probability of a team scoring ‘x’ number of goals in an individual game was determined through taking its GF/game value and adjusting it based on the GA/game value of the opponent </li><li>If each team scored an equal number of goals, each team was awarded one point and a random number generator was used to determine which of the two teams received the additional point</li><li>After all games were simulated, the division and conference standings were determined in accordance with NHL rules (that is, with the teams ranked by points, with the division winners being placed in the first three seeds in each conference)</li><li>If two teams were tied in points, greater number of wins was used as a tiebreaker </li><li>If two teams had the same number of points and wins, then a random number generator was used as a second tiebreaker </li><li>The playoff matchups were then determined based on the regular season standings</li><li>Individual playoff games were not simulated; rather, each series was simulated as a whole based on the Pythagorean expectations (which were derived from the goal percentage values) of the involved teams</li><li>Home advantage for the higher seed was valued at +0.015</li></ul> <p class="MsoNormal">20 000 Simulations were conducted in total.<span style=""> </span>Here’s how the league’s best team – defined as the team with the best underlying goal percentage in each individual season – fared.<span style=""> </span>We’ll start with the regular season results:</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBPxQ5i-jJAv__ui4U47SV2XKy8_4ifmX5-clmjj5R_QGqggGAGTVQ1ssZ3FbHY2lDGnVt0XL4qqK8RqDumoRJaR-1qGWZSNTChFzjMmawlfS4Op1dZOdxDHbQwhacv7ZaKHi5SSYdQkA/s1600/New+Picture+%252810%2529.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 319px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBPxQ5i-jJAv__ui4U47SV2XKy8_4ifmX5-clmjj5R_QGqggGAGTVQ1ssZ3FbHY2lDGnVt0XL4qqK8RqDumoRJaR-1qGWZSNTChFzjMmawlfS4Op1dZOdxDHbQwhacv7ZaKHi5SSYdQkA/s400/New+Picture+%252810%2529.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622322494962515442" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The above chart shows how the best team performed in four areas – division rank, conference rank, league rank in points, and league rank in goal differential.<span style=""> </span>So, as an example, the best team ended up winning the President’s Trophy – i.e. finishing with the most points –<span style=""> </span>about 32% of time.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The results are interesting. The best team does very well in general, but the range in outcomes is considerable.<span style=""> </span>It wins its division a majority of the time yet still manages to finish dead last every now and then (about once every 200 seasons).<span style=""> </span>It wins the conference almost half the time and finishes in the top four about 84% of the time.<span style=""> </span>However, it still misses the playoffs a non-trivial percentage of the time (2.2%).<span style=""> </span>The latter fact may not be too surprising – the 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks were close to being the best team in the league but only made the playoffs by the slimmest of margins.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">It wins the President’s Trophy about a third of time and does even better in terms of goal differential, posting the best mark in roughly 40% of the simulations.<span style=""> </span>However, it occasionally finishes in the bottom half of the league in both categories (about 2% and 1% of the time, respectively).<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">The graph below shows the distribution in year end point totals for the best team.<span style=""> </span>It averaged just over 107 points, with a high of 145 and a low of 73.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqLPmFGzlJq36eCDIBW1TGAFI1zu6EE56nS0NAvJfCisPfJFRjyKhmWIt5dTkEkbe1zvytYYtHlKdRcQDtZ9lVFhV7wXT5ScJww2nvJCJE4_RU5g62YJ6ssTr3n7zkIj5jAxhsvBxGO5UC/s1600/bestteampointdistribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 187px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqLPmFGzlJq36eCDIBW1TGAFI1zu6EE56nS0NAvJfCisPfJFRjyKhmWIt5dTkEkbe1zvytYYtHlKdRcQDtZ9lVFhV7wXT5ScJww2nvJCJE4_RU5g62YJ6ssTr3n7zkIj5jAxhsvBxGO5UC/s400/bestteampointdistribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622324050319903346" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">And the distribution in goal differential (mean = 57; max = 161; min= -34).</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij_puLpSjSy9zZvo-YRDWJ81UQTOjDzNM-JgroahXVgQMfrMYouxlU_LJps468LJOGtmaxaJs0stL8BX16HUz8WS2sxlOTLNzPP8ma0ijsDbU4Az6Hehz_cHSrRbo7yVR8ol-nJpiy2Kse/s1600/bestteamGDdistribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 187px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij_puLpSjSy9zZvo-YRDWJ81UQTOjDzNM-JgroahXVgQMfrMYouxlU_LJps468LJOGtmaxaJs0stL8BX16HUz8WS2sxlOTLNzPP8ma0ijsDbU4Az6Hehz_cHSrRbo7yVR8ol-nJpiy2Kse/s400/bestteamGDdistribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622325368357145346" border="0" /></a><span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Finally, the chart showing the playoff outcomes for the best team, and therefore answering the question posed earlier.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpJ0lvTej1FNAeuxyuA5wbSRNDyYW8OXORgs1NaaxmeP_EBGVXF5xt1rDPB41gaR016U-73OB8EaJa_MCRz5ULrgyhwoRVJsdkKDXUUkNIBc4oZ0sO8iduikaFuFxysz53b5WXgIy79r9a/s1600/playoffoutcomesbestteam.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpJ0lvTej1FNAeuxyuA5wbSRNDyYW8OXORgs1NaaxmeP_EBGVXF5xt1rDPB41gaR016U-73OB8EaJa_MCRz5ULrgyhwoRVJsdkKDXUUkNIBc4oZ0sO8iduikaFuFxysz53b5WXgIy79r9a/s400/playoffoutcomesbestteam.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5622326447608960658" border="0" /></a> <p class="MsoNormal">It turns out that the best team wins the cup 22% of the time – about once every five seasons.<span style=""> </span>This accords well with what we’ve observed since the lockout, with the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings being the only cup winner that was also unambiguously the best team in the league.<span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span>The 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks were probably the best but it’s hard to say for sure.<span style=""> </span>The 2008-09 Penguins were a good team but the Wings were probably better that year.<span style=""> </span>Ditto for the 2006-07 Ducks.<span style=""> </span>The 2010-11 Bruins were merely a good team, and I can’t even say that much for the 2005-06 Hurricanes, who may not have even been one of the ten best teams in the league during that season.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Caveats:</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The exercise assumes that team ability is static.<span style=""> </span>This is obviously untrue in reality, given injuries, roster turnover, and like variables.<span style=""> </span>Consequently, the best true talent team at one point in the season may not be the best team at a different point. Moreover, the spread in team talent at any given point in the season is likely to be somewhat broader than the ability curve used in the exercise.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Scores were generated for individual games through the use of poisson probabilities, which does not take into account score effects.<span style=""> </span>Thus, the model slightly underestimates the incidence of tie games.<span style=""> </span>For the same reason, it also overestimates the team-to-team spread in goal differential.<span style=""> </span></p>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-73681534248783624672011-06-07T00:12:00.000-07:002011-06-07T17:57:56.544-07:00Predicting Playoff Success - Part TwoRob <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Vollman</span> raised an interesting question in the <a href="http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3299311926633621468&postID=5669755003495610304">comments section</a> of my <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/06/predicting-playoff-success.html">last post</a>, that being whether my findings precluded the possibility that some teams consistently perform better or worse in the playoffs.<br /><br />The question can be answered by comparing each team's actual performance, as measured by winning percentage, with what would be expected based on regular season results. If the spread in [actual - expected] winning percentage is significantly greater than what would be expected by chance alone, then that suggests that some types of teams may consistently outperform or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">underperform</span> in the playoffs relative to the regular season.<br /><br />As with my last post, my sample consisted of all 1882 playoffs games played between 1988 and 2010. I've prepared a chart which shows, in the leftmost section, how each of the league's teams performed during that span. The middle section of the chart shows each team's expected wins and losses, based on single-game probabilities generated from regular season data. Finally, the rightmost section shows each team's winning percentage differential (defined as observed winning percentage minus expected winning percentage), as well as the probability of observing a differential at least that large by chance alone.<br /><br />That last part may require some elaboration. All 1882 games were simulated 1000 times, based on the regular-season derived probability values. For each of the individual simulations, I determined each team's winning percentage and subtracted from it that team's expected winning percentage. The p value column simply indicates the proportion of simulations in which the the absolute value of that number - that is, the team's [simulated winning percentage - expected winning percentage] - exceeded the absolute value of that team's [observed winning percentage - expected winning percentage].<br /><br />A specific example may be illustrative. Anaheim had an observed winning percentage of 0.576, an expected winning percentage of 0.462, and therefore an [observed winning percentage - expected winning percentage] of 0.114. In only 0.033 of the 1000 simulations did Anaheim's simulated winning percentage differ from its expected winning percentage by at least 0.114. Hence Anaheim's p value of 0.033.<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghosKL0aIGtk3IwVCiDQ_DdlvuLg3RzSErwaY3NcQG8yZXKGUfWlbS3f0Ea2Yvbh-HtRfcKIJVpbp-hVWnbuCjbiYl_pVcfZsm6Du7AHs0EG87mBHIOZquaVAC62ppdOL-RkMOeaeWVC21/s1600/ObservedversusExpectedplayoff+results.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 389px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghosKL0aIGtk3IwVCiDQ_DdlvuLg3RzSErwaY3NcQG8yZXKGUfWlbS3f0Ea2Yvbh-HtRfcKIJVpbp-hVWnbuCjbiYl_pVcfZsm6Du7AHs0EG87mBHIOZquaVAC62ppdOL-RkMOeaeWVC21/s400/ObservedversusExpectedplayoff+results.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5615402516266604162" border="0" /></a><br />As can be seen, some teams outperformed their expected winning percentage, whereas others underachieved. Based on each team's [observed winning percentage - expected winning percentage], and the probability of each differential materializing by chance alone, Edmonton, Pittsburgh and Anaheim were the three most "clutch" teams, whereas the Islanders, Columbus and Atlanta were the biggest "chokers." But is the spread between the teams any different from what would be predicted from chance alone?<br /><br />There are two ways in which this question can be answered. The first is to group the observed winning percentage differentials ( expected versus actual winning percentage) into several categories, and calculate the number of values in each category as a percentage of the total sample (relative frequency). Following that, the same can be done with the simulated differentials. The two distributions can then be compared.<br /><br />The second is to repeat the exact same exercise, but to use actual wins instead of winning percentage. I prefer this second method as the fact that some teams, such as Atlanta, Columbus and Quebec, played very few games has the potential to skew the results if winning percentage is used.<br /><br />Here are the two graphs:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgK2ERLhE0kGlm1yCgPQi0BtzXMDgkiEdB_F9Jsstd4ySZMwwe-VLq257_SuDcjDH3akWxxtE7pFtwqVvinELriGB8udwEOGr1cWOKrAuT-sXzLrkD2h7h454NG-h8nZc5pcGwrq8i5DXY/s1600/winning%2525differentialgraph.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 176px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgK2ERLhE0kGlm1yCgPQi0BtzXMDgkiEdB_F9Jsstd4ySZMwwe-VLq257_SuDcjDH3akWxxtE7pFtwqVvinELriGB8udwEOGr1cWOKrAuT-sXzLrkD2h7h454NG-h8nZc5pcGwrq8i5DXY/s400/winning%2525differentialgraph.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5615586379671002386" border="0" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbuflx2jQyHaemltgcm4STRFgTtgB3Ai4aRpjnNoszVCITI5u9Pv8Ra5pot3y3DkN3U0ZOwnf92BIrGGqjq5-VWWhSavRPX-U2JsHriR9yRBE4XL_Cxw-pCxLHVEbaaYsYY2AqRaeodXBE/s1600/observedversusexpectedwinningpercentagegraph.bmp"><br /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8E-ZJQmwp7SnxZ36rkVGgpQ18aAqwIqjZY6dzjnECYqTocY7Pq8OvvlkVlXNj-ZC2hOnGEIZ3xx6c3RoRVEbuQNeLfN57FR6Pp4EwjeOvZuhvlzar93YHClI8fSDoimbF8-vhIlBGwdf/s1600/observedversusexpectedwinsgraph.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 175px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv8E-ZJQmwp7SnxZ36rkVGgpQ18aAqwIqjZY6dzjnECYqTocY7Pq8OvvlkVlXNj-ZC2hOnGEIZ3xx6c3RoRVEbuQNeLfN57FR6Pp4EwjeOvZuhvlzar93YHClI8fSDoimbF8-vhIlBGwdf/s400/observedversusexpectedwinsgraph.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5615423025540664962" border="0" /></a><br />In the case of winning percentage, the actual spread is noticeably greater than the observed spread. But the difference is not too large, there being something of a general correspondence. And in the case of wins, the two lines form almost a perfect match.<br /><br />If I were to issue a conclusion, it would be that although some teams over or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">underperform</span> in the playoffs relative to their regular season results, this appears to be mostly the product of normal statistical variation. There isn't much support for the idea that there exists an ability to perform in the playoffs that is independent and separate from the ability to perform during the regular season.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-56697550034956103042011-06-04T22:28:00.000-07:002011-06-05T00:32:23.849-07:00Predicting Playoff SuccessIt's often said that the playoffs are a different ball game as compared to the regular season - that some teams are built for the playoffs whereas others are not.<br /><br />The above statement can be evaluated by looking at how well regular season results predict playoff success. This can be done by assigning a theoretical win probability to every playoff team based on how it performed during the regular season, and determining the odds for each individual matchup on that basis. If the statement is true, the favorite - the team with the superior win probability as against its opponent - should win significantly less often than expected.<br /><br />My sample consisted of all 1882 playoff games played between 1988 and 2010. Theoretical win probabilities were computed on the basis of regular season goal ratio, corrected for schedule difficulty. While goal ratio is imperfect in this respect, the data required to produce more precise estimates is simply not available for the majority of the seasons included in the sample. Thus, goal ratio is the best measure available.<br /><br />Home advantage was valued at +0.056, this being the difference between the expected neutral ice winning percentage of home teams (0.505), and their observed winning percentage over the games included in the sample (0.561).<br /><br />After computing the odds for each individual game, I divided the data into eight categories. The category in which a game was placed depended upon the expected winning percentage of the favorite. The cutoffs for the eight categories were as follows:<br /><ol><li>0.50-0.52</li><li>0.52-0.54</li><li>0.54-0.56</li><li>0.56-0.58</li><li>0.58-0.60</li><li>0.60-0.625</li><li>0.625-0.675</li><li>0.675-1</li></ol>The cutoffs were not gerrymandered so as to produce a particular result - I simply wanted each category to contain a relatively equal number of games. As there are many more games in which the favorite has a win probability between 0.50 and 0.60 than there games in which the favorite has a win probability greater than 0.60, this necessitated making certain categories larger than others.<br /><br />The results:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl3o_mtqc8SZbwiL579xhlp6xFaips9zHC550XKTg9TrwafZCk9E_8OYiicRJPmPxe2ojj2n6J53u-Poi13WshgJ2pJ_uihNTA4zed8UsTBDLEIro7Kp3TJ7XkHRMrwf4rOP2vTzbj5pvW/s1600/playoffsexpectedversusobservedwinning%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 165px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl3o_mtqc8SZbwiL579xhlp6xFaips9zHC550XKTg9TrwafZCk9E_8OYiicRJPmPxe2ojj2n6J53u-Poi13WshgJ2pJ_uihNTA4zed8UsTBDLEIro7Kp3TJ7XkHRMrwf4rOP2vTzbj5pvW/s400/playoffsexpectedversusobservedwinning%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5614624611405568514" border="0" /></a><br />[The italicized 'n' column simply indicates the number of games contained within each category.]<br /><br />As can be seen, using regular season data allows one to predict the results of groups of individual playoff games with surprising accuracy. On the whole, the favorite did slightly worse in reality than what the regular season results predicted - 0.573 versus 0.586. However, this is probably just a reflection of the fact that regular season goal ratio is the product of both skill and luck, and that the true talent goal ratio of the average team lies closer to the population average than does its observed goal ratio.<br /><br />As for the individual categories, six of the eight show a reasonably close correspondence between expected and observed winning percentage, with the other two featuring notable discrepancies. While each gap appears significant, either could be the product of chance alone. The probability of a 0.51 team going 0.468 or worse over 263 games is 0.097. Likewise, the probability of a 0.713 team going 0.671 or worse over 204 games is 0.109.<br /><br />If I were to guess, I'd say that the discrepancy in the 0.675-1 category is a real effect. As discussed earlier, goal ratio tends to overvalue the favorite and underrate the underdog, and the greater the distance from the mean, the more likely this is to be true in individual cases.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com686tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-2590212270943921992011-06-02T23:30:00.000-07:002011-06-04T09:48:21.346-07:00More on Team EV Shooting AbilityAbout a week ago, I put up a post on team even strength shooting percentage, which included a chart showing what the underlying talent distribution in that area probably looks like. I've reproduced the relevant curve below:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFDu7grJS_9ggu-p2vYYsIdV5IdepcjVU4Stywyzoae35ALNFnitpWB4G_XYJhAgSMSB2mKFnmdw_iwsc_gJVVcmhvT-gJMW0A7pZRzZaM5Ke_Ss621T7dIMlhnHxI_GKhGf0sRjxRdnWf/s1600/EVtalentdistribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 186px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFDu7grJS_9ggu-p2vYYsIdV5IdepcjVU4Stywyzoae35ALNFnitpWB4G_XYJhAgSMSB2mKFnmdw_iwsc_gJVVcmhvT-gJMW0A7pZRzZaM5Ke_Ss621T7dIMlhnHxI_GKhGf0sRjxRdnWf/s400/EVtalentdistribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5613887060614919026" border="0" /></a><br />The curve isn't excessively narrow. The 97th percentile equates to a shooting percentage of 0.0902, meaning that, in an average season, the league's most talented EV shooting team would have an underlying shooting percentage at or around that mark. That's no trivial advantage - with neutral luck, such a team would be expected to score roughly 18 more even strength goals than a team with average EV shooting ability.<br /><br />The problem is that, given that goals in the NHL are somewhat of a statistical rarity, the regular season doesn't provide us with a sample that is sufficiently large so as to be able to identify each team's true talent level with reasonable accuracy.<br /><br />This estimate uncertainty is well illustrated by comparing last year's Devils, who had a league worst 0.065 EV shooting percentage, with last year's Stars, who posted the league's best mark at 0.089. That seems like a fairly large gap - almost 2 and half percent. Surely one would be able to conclude that the 2010-11 Stars possessed more EV shooting talent than the 2010-11 Devils?<br /><br />In fact, there is a not-insignificant probability that the Devils were actually the better EV shooting team. This becomes immediately apparent upon viewing the ability distribution for each team and noting the overlap between the two curves.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0U7j-vrY8clawyq4FBRDDrjPWhYqz0tzunlfzxZyI_Kld9wH6tRmLOjayYdavT7tmypjnmYh7-JKjihTPM7zLD6zh8oWk2JWBvsELt-qNdzIaTBfkKw93RP4u6vYaLjLNXEsE4t6F27M/s1600/EVSH%2525DALN.J.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 193px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0U7j-vrY8clawyq4FBRDDrjPWhYqz0tzunlfzxZyI_Kld9wH6tRmLOjayYdavT7tmypjnmYh7-JKjihTPM7zLD6zh8oWk2JWBvsELt-qNdzIaTBfkKw93RP4u6vYaLjLNXEsE4t6F27M/s400/EVSH%2525DALN.J.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5613886893327936226" border="0" /></a><br />There is an 11.6% chance that N.J was actually the more talented team last season in terms of EV shooting ability. In other words, there will be some seasons - of which 2010-11 is an example - that do not permit the conclusion that any single team has definitively more EV shooting talent than any other.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-81796630997779926872011-05-30T17:27:00.001-07:002011-05-30T17:40:15.312-07:00Stanley Cup Finals 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrgsA3CmWd3Kq7aA5Nl_VQo0SsT9FeW1PuLi4S6hNnLsqfvtXFQxvtoj3JDGccOmcsefbzUqSn6GTqhNbqrmU8T77vI2yWqwK5WSKnaltYZ4oeGvo7MVq5KpdRQDHMQONqRoxORBg-4qmY/s1600/1011finalsprobabilities.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 173px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrgsA3CmWd3Kq7aA5Nl_VQo0SsT9FeW1PuLi4S6hNnLsqfvtXFQxvtoj3JDGccOmcsefbzUqSn6GTqhNbqrmU8T77vI2yWqwK5WSKnaltYZ4oeGvo7MVq5KpdRQDHMQONqRoxORBg-4qmY/s400/1011finalsprobabilities.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612670505011350658" border="0" /></a><br />It all comes down to this.<br /><br />The best team in the West against the best team in the East.*<br /><br />For the 6th straight year, the Western representative appears to be the stronger team. That's not really surprising - the West has had the better interconference record in every season since 1999-00, and often by a large margin.<br /><br />I think Vancouver is clearly the better team here and that, if anything, the odds I've presented above understate their chances. That said, these two teams are close enough to one another where it should be a good series.<br /><br />I'll take the Canucks to win in six games.<br /><br />VAN in 6.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">*As per my <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJfEXaGLa7Hl6ZmEO1Y7K9_E4Au_ag7HrCrw2VxRRX5IMroUD95lFk59flfQqmy1JSO1lvpwV9YN1G64BuDyt4VePWEal3h0hFbsMr_EzuQEFMLsWRqUgrQzzoKy-I2pvzu8ViaLUCeHF/s1600/1011playoffwinningpercentages.bmp">probability model</a>. It's possible - perhaps even likely in Boston's case - that neither team is the best team in its respective conference. For what it's worth, I'd take a healthy Pittsburgh team over Boston all day every day. But I digress.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /></span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-54510125554848894452011-05-29T18:20:00.000-07:002011-05-29T23:50:00.986-07:00Team Even Strength Shooting TalentA while back, I received a comment relating to how my playoff probability model accounts for teams that are outliers with respect to shooting percentage, with the 2009-10 Washington Capitals offered as an example of such a team.<br /><br />The answer is relatively straightforward: I merely regress each team to the league average based on the extent to which the team to team variation can be attributed to luck over the sample in question. As the variation in even strength shooting percentage at the team level is approximately 66% luck over the course of a regular season, each team's even strength shooting percentage is regressed two-thirds of the way to the mean in order to generate theoretical win probabilities.<br /><br />The application of above method to data from the 2010-11 regular season yields the following even strength shooting talent estimates for each the league's 30 teams.*<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRuvzAdKAwKYEEGF_Yx1GV2IFYqmJg5jjb4cpK4Fgcd8aC4cmzUujsufnfGIl0MPv-Ag86_QKGlX34O487v8jERIKyUOePkzpzonSDYLuLyyIkxyu3zx0mfB2cGPTvUwny_CzbX5T1nDdR/s1600/201011EVSH%2525TalentEstimates.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 159px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRuvzAdKAwKYEEGF_Yx1GV2IFYqmJg5jjb4cpK4Fgcd8aC4cmzUujsufnfGIl0MPv-Ag86_QKGlX34O487v8jERIKyUOePkzpzonSDYLuLyyIkxyu3zx0mfB2cGPTvUwny_CzbX5T1nDdR/s400/201011EVSH%2525TalentEstimates.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612379303846467522" border="0" /></a><br />This method, however, is actually a shortcut that relies on assumptions that are unlikely to be true in reality. For one, it assumes that all underlying talent distributions are normally distributed, which may or may not be the case. It's also insensitive to the fact that some teams take more shots than others over the course of a season. A more certain shooting talent estimate can be made with respect to a team that takes 2000 shots as compared to a team that takes 1500 shots, although the model fails to reflect that.<br /><br />The proper - albeit significantly more complicated and involved - approach would be to actually identify the nature of the underlying talent distribution and work one's way forward from there.<br /><br />The first step is to look at the observed distribution in performance. I did this through randomly selecting half a season's worth of games for each team and looking at how it performed with respect to EV SH% over that sample, and repeated this 2000 times for every season from 2003-04 to 2010-11. I elected to do this as it provided me with 420 000 data points, thereby allowing me to generate a smooth curve. By comparison, using the actual end-of-season frequencies would have provided me with a mere 210 data points.<br /><br />I came away with the following curve:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOgz74DeAkbFCPoyz-RMennbnnE0zeaIZgLaQR0td1iuwwh8rYMYixCF50ehSPqQOAoXINHCrlO8ZUNTgh0qy7PMFWgw4rZQMSZBzAixCvqjlWFDeBpOiJCY9AqNxcleW_NEGYUoxMg7lt/s1600/observed+distribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOgz74DeAkbFCPoyz-RMennbnnE0zeaIZgLaQR0td1iuwwh8rYMYixCF50ehSPqQOAoXINHCrlO8ZUNTgh0qy7PMFWgw4rZQMSZBzAixCvqjlWFDeBpOiJCY9AqNxcleW_NEGYUoxMg7lt/s400/observed+distribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612387295874754898" border="0" /></a><br />The distribution is slightly right-skewed and therefore not quite normal. This becomes meaningful at the tails - there were approximately 26 times more values 3 standard deviations above the mean than there were values 3 standard deviations below it. In other words, there are many more very good teams than very bad ones when it comes to even strength shooting performance.<br /><br />The next step is finding a curve that best fits the observed data. This curve should have a mean of approximately 0.081, which was the observed league average shooting percentage. It should also have a standard deviation of approximately 0.0048, which is the skill standard deviation in relation to even strength shooting percentage at the team level. Finally, the curve should be slightly positively skewed.<br /><br />The beta (236, 2977) curve, shown below, satisfies these criteria.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT-KLSzR2uH2d9mE_mFaAnclBBmsl7AaiE_DXH2Ef3R-kqYIs-AV3J7Cau97qerU97ped7NgIs8JRrvYr594GOsoP1Xwd1jZXpZRv19_w3P_sc73LrxVNl750JgueIM1lSO54Wj8MMyRPv/s1600/EVtalentdistribution.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 186px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT-KLSzR2uH2d9mE_mFaAnclBBmsl7AaiE_DXH2Ef3R-kqYIs-AV3J7Cau97qerU97ped7NgIs8JRrvYr594GOsoP1Xwd1jZXpZRv19_w3P_sc73LrxVNl750JgueIM1lSO54Wj8MMyRPv/s400/EVtalentdistribution.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612385929318546082" border="0" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixHHQRutEoHpp2oMGsoK3v_18xG6vJIb1xS2K1Ug95-g2wQHFC6I8kgI8X8Kc8T6I1_9HfVYPVrVXEUsN58bH6Y2GwQkDjW55MmN1vZ-lnMpmzDIupdVxwPBqP_LuOLQLfbbu1usQ5hoAb/s1600/EVtalentdistribution.bmp"><br /></a>As a check on the correctness of the selection, I used a random number generator to assign each team an artificial EV shooting percentage based on the above curve. I then simulated a sufficiently large number of half seasons based on those artificial numbers and compared the results to the observed data. If the choice is correct, the simulated results should closely match those observed.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlKIrxsVExPcjDpuPuvEuUs1fNB2qSCJto5jkOF54nAnn5Zzmh1ITl-9oD38LfbuZ4S6wGEouwE826sAN6yuStHAxGuBMj1WQapN46DfOT13Xv_RuospJcbx9UzQx0PFZvUdXSdt7UuuGQ/s1600/Simulatedversusobserved.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlKIrxsVExPcjDpuPuvEuUs1fNB2qSCJto5jkOF54nAnn5Zzmh1ITl-9oD38LfbuZ4S6wGEouwE826sAN6yuStHAxGuBMj1WQapN46DfOT13Xv_RuospJcbx9UzQx0PFZvUdXSdt7UuuGQ/s400/Simulatedversusobserved.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612382970713239330" border="0" /></a>The simulated curve is only based on about 30 000 data points, so it's not as smooth as the observed distribution. That said, the fit is pretty good. The observed distribution appears to have a fatter right tail, and so it's possible that a different beta curve might provide a better match. But it's close enough.<br /><br />The beta ability distribution can be used to estimate each team's true talent underlying shooting percentage, based on the 2010-11 regular season. How do these estimates compare to those produced by the simple regression approach discussed earlier?<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAELEMA1wuv6rjDP2JRNyl7ugVcQ_YfBrqlvLBh4V3g3S5Dae7ucLnF7N-1qY0o542m7nDkGOMgedjmHttqXijXEi0nQOGNAyMlRlP1iyAI5Gvg7V2iOiYtENAtz_logT90uCmN_nuxnX/s1600/Talentestimatecomparison.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 329px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAELEMA1wuv6rjDP2JRNyl7ugVcQ_YfBrqlvLBh4V3g3S5Dae7ucLnF7N-1qY0o542m7nDkGOMgedjmHttqXijXEi0nQOGNAyMlRlP1iyAI5Gvg7V2iOiYtENAtz_logT90uCmN_nuxnX/s400/Talentestimatecomparison.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5612394394507764450" border="0" /></a><br />The two approaches produce very similar results - the average difference amounting to only 0.0004. The latter approach is both more precise and principled. But the former achieves substantially similar estimates with a fraction of the effort.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:85%;" >* The mean used was 0.0812, this being the league average EV SH% since the lockout, even though the observed shooting percentage in 2010-11 was a bit lower - a touch under 0.08.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.<br />*<br /></span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-62287193629495278342011-05-13T14:22:00.000-07:002011-05-13T15:11:28.020-07:003rd Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxfmUEwgzDWKDSzI1BflSuFEFWPy8L3PIsJsBRzorG87ED8XRbxbbq2n_8geTpWZNoeICJh9ahcuzZTtKN5wKzLIkhABWJHgiZzVoEygHMGTEv6J_EM6af-1vFy1VbZEZhvOOzP5Tplvyi/s1600/Thirdroundprobabilities2011.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 341px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxfmUEwgzDWKDSzI1BflSuFEFWPy8L3PIsJsBRzorG87ED8XRbxbbq2n_8geTpWZNoeICJh9ahcuzZTtKN5wKzLIkhABWJHgiZzVoEygHMGTEv6J_EM6af-1vFy1VbZEZhvOOzP5Tplvyi/s400/Thirdroundprobabilities2011.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5606314482827280338" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />VAN - S.J</span><br /><br />Another extremely even matchup. The relevant facts, as I see them:<br /><ul><li>S.J probably has the better powerplay - they generate a ridiculous number of shots</li><li>VAN very likely has the better goaltender </li><li>VAN has home ice advantage</li><li>Both teams are about equally good at controlling the play at EV<br /></li><li>VAN is missing a key forward<br /></li></ul>If those facts give one club a clear advantage, I can't see it. These are probably the two best teams in the league and this should be a great series. I'll take the Canucks in seven games.<br /><br />Van in 7.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">BOS – T.B</span><br /><br />At first glance, Boston seems like the obvious pick here. But the (Patrice) Bergeron injury complicates things. The latest reports indicate that he has yet to resume skating since the incident, so from that it seems as though he might not play at all. That would be a huge loss, as he's probably their best forward, at least by my reckoning. <br /><br />The issue is whether the Bergeron injury is enough to tip the balance in Tampa Bay's favor. I don't think that it is. Based on regular season play, I have the Bruins as a 61% favorite. While the Bergeron injury necessitates a downward adjusted of that figure, I don't think the loss is profound enough to render the Bruins underdogs. This is supported by the fact that the oddsmakers - who certainly take such things into account - still have Boston as about a 56% favorite. <br /><br />BOS in 7.JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-84635176786685429752011-05-10T20:50:00.000-07:002011-05-10T23:18:14.125-07:00Team Effects and Penalty Kill Save PercentageIn <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/05/team-effects-and-even-strength-save.html">yesterday's post</a>, I looked at the extent to which team effects contribute to the variation in even strength save percentage between individual goaltenders.<br /><br />The results were somewhat inconclusive. On the one hand, the inter-year correlation for even strength save percentage is no stronger for goalies remaining with the same team when compared to the value for goalies that changed teams. This suggests that team effects are negligible.<br /><br />On the other hand, there is a statistically significant correlation between the even strength save percentage of starters and backups. Moreover, the magnitude of the correlation is moderate when viewed in light of the fact that even strength save percentage exhibits low reliability over the course of a single season. This suggests that team effects are important.<br /><br />The purpose of this post is to look at whether -- and if so, to what extent -- team effects play a role with respect to penalty kill save percentage. The same methods used in yesterday's post will be applied here. If readers are interested in the specifics of each method, I'd encourage a reading of the original post, in which the calculation steps are set out in some detail.<br /><br />Firstly, a comparison of goalies that changed teams to goalies that remained with the same team. Here's a summary of what this method entails:<br /><br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;">Goalies that played for more than one team in a single season were excluded. No minimum shots faced cutoff was employed. However, because some of the goalies in the sample faced very few shots in a given season, I used a weighted correlation in which the weight assigned to each season pair was the lower number of shots faced in the two seasons used...[a]dditionally, because the league average [PK SV%] was not uniform over the period in question, I adjusted each goalie's raw [PK SV%] by dividing it by the league average [PK SV%] in that particular season.</blockquote>The results:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC83z7TO52LdzzBbTxLtspttgLzV1p16eJzJPFmxffUe6dOBPmFSZdzFkky8HWeWE1ddm7prejpy8zqyxgd-0lSiufJJepn0Zt6FAUqnEbJ_o3jQ8NIC0psnAYFUZSGkKeaQXDEDLK31Xa/s1600/interyearcorrelationPKSV%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 121px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC83z7TO52LdzzBbTxLtspttgLzV1p16eJzJPFmxffUe6dOBPmFSZdzFkky8HWeWE1ddm7prejpy8zqyxgd-0lSiufJJepn0Zt6FAUqnEbJ_o3jQ8NIC0psnAYFUZSGkKeaQXDEDLK31Xa/s400/interyearcorrelationPKSV%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5605314154265996194" border="0" /></a><br />No evidence for team effects here. The correlation for goalies that changed teams is actually larger, although the difference is not statistically significant.<br /><br />Next, determining the correlation between starters and backups. Again, a refresher as to the specifics of the method involved:<br /><br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;">I separated starting goaltenders and backup goaltenders into two groups. A starting goaltender was defined as the goaltender that faced the most shots for his team in a particular season. All other goaltenders were defined as backups, except for goaltenders that played for more than one team in a season, who were excluded from the sample. Just like in the first method, the [PK SV%] for all goaltenders was adjusted by dividing same by the league average [PK SV%] in the particular season. I then determined the weighted correlation between the [PK SV%] of a team's starter with the collective [PK SV%] of his backups. The weight assigned to each data pair was the lower number of shots faced by either the starter or his backups. So, for example, if the starter faced 1000 shots, and his backups collectively faced 1400, the weight would be 1000.</blockquote><br />The application of the above steps yields a correlation of 0.07 over 340 data pairs, a value which is not statistically significant - there's a roughly 19% chance that a correlation that large or larger could occur by chance alone. That said, given the low number of shots faced on the penalty kill by the average goaltender over the course of a single season, it is not possible to obtain a statistically significant correlation between starters and backups unless team effects accounted for a substantial percentage of the non-luck seasonal variation in PK SV%. For example, a correlation of 0.10 - which would barely be significant at the 5% level - would imply a very large role for team effects, given that PK SV% for individual goaltenders has a low seasonal reliability (see the next paragraph).<br /><br />Proceeding on the assumption that the correlation between starters and backups is reflective of a true relationship, the next step is to compute the seasonal reliability co-efficients for each variable. I obtain approximate values of 0.28 for starters and 0.07 for backups. This implies a true correlation of 0.50.<br /><br />Finally, I have goaltender data at the individual game level for the last three seasons against which the plausibility of the above results can be checked. The penalty kill data I have is inclusive of 4-on-5 situations only, but that shouldn't make a huge difference. The table below displays the split-half reliabilities for starter and backup PK SV%, as well as the split-half correlation between the two variables, both of which have been averaged over 1000 trials.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFl4pL8R4DcBX78oz2Rp_HrM4-nV2LOG8S75QQai-17Y2RQN2u1T8q8bDXCe0UYIv7k_RC0Lf4yORQAbs8xwfpnOXPf4t5_QKG6uRbiy4UQ8Xc90vhZw6sQAxuH0d8UBoWDojClp8-w3wB/s1600/20072010backupstarter4on5SV%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 128px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFl4pL8R4DcBX78oz2Rp_HrM4-nV2LOG8S75QQai-17Y2RQN2u1T8q8bDXCe0UYIv7k_RC0Lf4yORQAbs8xwfpnOXPf4t5_QKG6uRbiy4UQ8Xc90vhZw6sQAxuH0d8UBoWDojClp8-w3wB/s400/20072010backupstarter4on5SV%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5605335454076137122" border="0" /></a>These values imply a true correlation of 0.54, which is consistent with the results of the second method.<br /><br />So there you have it - comparing goalies that switched teams to goalies that remained with the same team suggests team effects are unimportant in relation to PK SV%. But there is a positive correlation between the PK performance of starters and backups, which indicates that team effects are relevant. Those who read yesterday's post will be aware that the data for even strength save percentage tells the same story.<br /><br />Interestingly, the data suggests that team effects may be more important at even strength than on the penalty kill. This is unusual as penalty kill save percentage at the team level is somewhat more reliable than even strength save percentage, once you control for the disparity in sample size - that is, the fact that a team faces many more shots at even strength than it does on the penalty kill.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-80662649166247648872011-05-10T01:06:00.000-07:002011-05-10T04:47:31.057-07:00Team Effects and Even Strength Save PercentageThe extent to which a goaltender's team has an impact on his save percentage - and, in particular, his even strength save percentage - has received some attention in the hockey blogging world in the past - see <a href="http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html">here</a> and <a href="http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/05/looking-for-outliers.html">here</a> for some good articles.<br /><br />One way in which team effects on even strength save percentage (EV SV%) can be gauged is to compare goalies that changed teams to goalies that remained with the same team. This can be done through creating two groups of goalies on the basis of the above criterion, and looking at how well EV SV% repeats from one year to the next for each group. If the correlation for the group of goalies that changed teams is significantly smaller than the correlation for the group of goalies that remained with the same team, then that would be evidence of team effects.<br /><br />Using a spreadsheet kindly supplied by <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/">Geoff Detweiler</a>, I performed the above exercise with respect to goaltender data from 1997-98 to 2010-11. Goalies that played for more than one team in a single season were excluded. No minimum shots faced cutoff was employed. However, because some of the goalies in the sample faced very few shots in a given season, I used a weighted correlation in which the weight assigned to each season pair was the lower number of shots faced in the two seasons used. Thus, if a goalie faced 1600 EV shots in one season, and 400 in the next, the weight assigned to the season pair would be 400.<br /><br />Additionally, because the league average EV SV% was not uniform over the period in question, I adjusted each goalie's raw EV SV% by dividing it by the league average EV SV% in that particular season. Here are the results:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP0PnT83ESShqQsN73gwswoLmBdYnbLiEo5Eolep_H7m7dfg-xjVj_wYvo6YObHYoVRNvWKPxsosaZM4a2dIsfOvPNXYo_dn4xqsxj0dFJMnfCBYgvPRCDXKHIMYT57Be46qlq_8eqH6J4/s1600/interyearcorrelationEVSV%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 117px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP0PnT83ESShqQsN73gwswoLmBdYnbLiEo5Eolep_H7m7dfg-xjVj_wYvo6YObHYoVRNvWKPxsosaZM4a2dIsfOvPNXYo_dn4xqsxj0dFJMnfCBYgvPRCDXKHIMYT57Be46qlq_8eqH6J4/s400/interyearcorrelationEVSV%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5605007982775828530" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">[ n refers to the number of season pairs in each group ]</span></span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">The correlations are scarcely distinguishable, which implies that team effects aren't important at even strength. This essentially replicates what Vic Ferrari <a href="http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html">found when performing similar analysis</a> a few years ago.<br /><br />Of course, that doesn't necessarily settle the issue. For example, another approach would be to look the relationship between the EV SV% of a team's starting netminder and the collective EV SV% of its backups. If the two variables are positively correlated, then that implies the existence of team effects.<br /><br />The advantage of this method is that it allows for team effects to be measured more directly by examining the relationship between the variables of importance at the within-season level. This is significant as team effects on save percentage - to the extent that they do exist - may not repeat overly well from one season to the next. For example, Tom Awad, in an <a href="http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=540">excellent article written last year</a>, found that while team differences in shot quality over the course of a single season were much larger than what would be predicted from chance alone, the metric exhibited weak season-to-season repeatability.<br /><br />Using the same goaltender data referred to earlier, I separated starting goaltenders and backup goaltenders into two groups. A starting goaltender was defined as the goaltender that faced the most shots for his team in a particular season. All other goaltenders were defined as backups, except for goaltenders that played for more than one team in a season, who were excluded from the sample. Just like in the first method, the EV SV% for all goaltenders was adjusted by dividing same by the league average EV SV% in the particular season. I then determined the weighted correlation between the EV SV% of a team's starter with the collective EV SV% of his backups. The weight assigned to each data pair was the lower number of shots faced by either the starter or his backups. So, for example, if the starter faced 1000 shots, and his backups collectively faced 1400, the weight would be 1000.<br /><br />After doing all of that, I obtained a correlation of 0.156. With 340 data pairs, the probability of a correlation that large materializing by chance alone is very small - slightly under 1%, in fact. Moreover, it cannot be accounted for by shot recording bias.* Therefore, it would appear that the EV SV% of individual goaltenders is affected to some degree by team effects. The question that must now be answered is this: how large is the effect?<br /><br />As discussed before on this blog, the fact that two variables are weakly correlated over a given sample does not in itself mean that there is no strong underlying relationship between those variables. For example, if each of the variables exhibits low reliability over the sample in question, a weak correlation may in fact indicate a close underlying relationship. Thus, ascertaining the reliability values of the two variables is critical in interpreting the significance of the correlation between them.<br /><br />Applying this to our value of 0.156, it becomes necessary to determine the seasonal reliability co-efficients of both starting goalie EV SV% and backup EV SV%. While it is not possible to perform this calculation directly,** it can be approximated by simulating seasons to match the spread of the averaged observed results and noting the average correlation between such seasons. Using this method, the approximate reliability co-efficients are 0.33 for starter EV SV% and 0.22 for backup EV SV%.<br /><br />These values imply that the true correlation between the two variables is roughly 0.58. Assuming that both variables are normally distributed***, this means that the variation in one variable would be able to explain 33% of the variation in the other over the long run, suggesting that team effects are important.<br /><br />As a final note, this post was intended to generate discussion more than anything. Comments demonstrating flaws in my reasoning and/or methodology are welcome, as is the presentation of contrary evidence.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">* Shot recording bias causes the save percentages of goalies playing for the same team to be more similar to one another than what would be the case if shots were recorded in the same in every rink. However, because of a) the small number of shots taken over the course of the season, b) the relatively <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHIQSR3flcDShwNIgKQSjJqgdycfgU4k_xNGBO-0mjEwnT1MsuwC3pn9RcEKGk7NC7TLpVvCgIC8x2bmQmfJ179t5ygpXb-YXEnUTmULmIjIp5suGl5esSjhZDsqUixXehTXN0vvTu9f5I/s1600/shotsmissesandblocks.bmp">mild nature of the bias</a>, and c) the fact that half of all games are played on the road, the effect is fairly minor. Of the observed correlation of 0.156, only 0.018 can be attributed to shot recording bias.<br /><br />** Ordinarily, and as I've done in the past, I would calculate the split-half reliability values for each variable and then calculate the split-half correlation between them. This method is superior as no approximation is necessary with respect to determining the reliability co-efficients. Unfortunately, EV SV% data at the individual game level is required in order to do so. As such data is only available for 2007-08 onward, I'm only able to apply this method to the years of 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 (and even then, for 5-on-5 play rather than all EV situations). Here are the results:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7UIYIq7qwWt1X0PWND4bF7ESWXcpat-MrdIaPaqojYhRfgyWkCfaajKB2IVwaWycUIMpxcXOjT81vxAsZZZ-YnFT5fpbpTd2u06v1T16LN_hB0CdPRmROadYtCjd6bKNMiet2BaB6YPpP/s1600/20072010backupstarter5on5SV%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 128px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7UIYIq7qwWt1X0PWND4bF7ESWXcpat-MrdIaPaqojYhRfgyWkCfaajKB2IVwaWycUIMpxcXOjT81vxAsZZZ-YnFT5fpbpTd2u06v1T16LN_hB0CdPRmROadYtCjd6bKNMiet2BaB6YPpP/s400/20072010backupstarter5on5SV%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5605045767271060018" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:85%;">The results imply that team effects have a very important role in relation to 5-on-5 SV% - indeed, that there would be a perfect correlation between the 5-0n-5 SV% of starters and backups in the long run! This being an obvious absurdity, I think it's preferable to ignore this and concern ourselves with the results from the larger 12 year sample instead. <br /><br />*** This is merely a simplifying assumption. In reality, it is unlikely that either variable is normally distributed.<br /><br /><br /></span><br /></div></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-28135755056028774162011-05-01T00:24:00.000-07:002011-05-02T14:04:52.350-07:00Loose Ends - Part III C: The Power Play<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7zu6Fix2mI8_xDY8wbfNlV2sx_TL_8S8aOIECxvpNwmUxvWi6d1cxxM9zGOQvJcKEg37oHhp5HQJwUPH-VD9CB9Fq6Sf-szPacztWUS9WYNygXUU5Wi96DUyMhhF-XVFIBi1nVf8jTsr/s1600/PKfenwickcorsi.bmp"><br /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">[<span style="font-weight: bold;">EDIT:</span> The table relating to the penalty kill was labeled incorrectly and suggested that I was looking at shorthanded scoring ( I accidentally put 'PKSF/60' and PK 'GF/60' instead of PKSA/60' and PKGA/60, respectively). The table has now been fixed.]</span></span><br /><br />This post is a tad overdue.<br /><br />It's the second of two follow up posts relating to <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/04/loose-ends-part-iii-the-power-play.html">powerplay performance</a>. While the<a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/04/loose-ends-part-iii-b-power-play.html"> first post </a>dealt with the relationship between shooting percentage at even strength and shooting percentage on the powerplay, this post relates to predicting future powerplay performance.<br /><br /><div id="recover"><span id="spellcheckMessage">The variation in powerplay shooting percentage at the team level, over the course of a single regular season, is approximately <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKS_zyNyPwb_yCmkDPId9Zl59XhW36yP7iHjHXPy81uvHoT-0zV3RB852ueBSQLPbncEAY6icUaiRzPCxtob9iZ822DaTz3bHWX930J4m2qrIt-GNSgfVb27LvDm6a2W_raovYYHsm3vPk/s1600/averageluckvariance.jpg">90% luck, 10% skill</a>. Not surprisingly, powerplay shot rate is a stronger predictor of future powerplay performance than raw powerplay performance (provided that the sample size with which one is dealing isn't overly large). This is precisely what Gabriel Desjardins <a href="http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/4/9/2100045/what-drives-power-play-success">demonstrated</a> in a post published in early April.<br /><br />What this post is concerned with, however, is whether the inclusion of missed and blocked shots in the sample has residual value with respect to predicting to predicting powerplay efficiency in the future. While such is the case at <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/02/shots-fenwick-and-corsi.html">even strength</a>, special teams may be a different ballgame. What does the data say?<br /><br />One preliminary issue that must be dealt with is shot recording bias. Recording bias doesn't really present a problem with respect to even strength shot metrics due to the fact that:<br /><br />A. What were ultimately interested in is shot ratio/percentage or shot differential, and<br />B. None of the scorers appear to favor one team over the other (i.e. recording bias is largely, if not entirely, symmetrical).<br /><br />Not so with special teams. With special teams, we're generally interested with rate stats, in which case recording bias becomes relevant. This is especially true when it comes to the recording of missed and blocked shots. Below is a table showing each team's home/road ratio in recorded shots (saved shots + goals), misses and blocks over the last three regular seasons (from 2008-09 to 2010-11). All game situations were included, although empty net goals or shots that resulted in same were not.<br /><br /><br /><br /></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHIQSR3flcDShwNIgKQSjJqgdycfgU4k_xNGBO-0mjEwnT1MsuwC3pn9RcEKGk7NC7TLpVvCgIC8x2bmQmfJ179t5ygpXb-YXEnUTmULmIjIp5suGl5esSjhZDsqUixXehTXN0vvTu9f5I/s1600/shotsmissesandblocks.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 221px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHIQSR3flcDShwNIgKQSjJqgdycfgU4k_xNGBO-0mjEwnT1MsuwC3pn9RcEKGk7NC7TLpVvCgIC8x2bmQmfJ179t5ygpXb-YXEnUTmULmIjIp5suGl5esSjhZDsqUixXehTXN0vvTu9f5I/s400/shotsmissesandblocks.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5601660630839448994" border="0" /></a><br /><span id="spellcheckMessage"><br />As one might notice, the recording of shots that actually make it to the goal isn't that bad. New Jersey and Minnesota appear to undercount, and Colorado appears to overcount. But every other location is reasonably good.<br /><br />The recording of misses and blocks, by contrast, is generally fucked up. The N.J, CHI, ATL and BOS scorers seem very reluctant to record misses. Conversely, the guys in L.A, CAR, DAL and TOR seem overly eager.<br /><br />The data for blocks reveals a similar story. The scorers in ANA, BOS, FLA and N.J count too few, whereas the scorers in NYI, MTL, EDM, S.J, TOR and WSH count too many.<br /><br />It's a god damn nightmare.<br /><br />Fortunately, there is a solution. Recording bias can be more or less controlled for by dividing the observed number of home missed or blocked shots by the appropriate co-efficient (that being the applicable H/R ratio, as displayed in the above table).<br /><br />Once this correction is made, one can determine whether including missed and blocked shots adds value with respect to predicting future powerplay performance.<br /><br />The following experiment was performed:<br /><br />- I randomly selected 40 games from the 2010-11 season<br />- I calculated each team's PP GF/60, PP SF/60, PP Fenwick/60, PP Corsi/60 over that selected sample<br />- PP Fenwick/60 = [(powerplay shots + powerplay missed shots)/PP TOI]*60<br />- </span><span id="spellcheckMessage">PP Corsi/60 = [(powerplay shots + powerplay missed shots + powerplay blocked shots)/PP TOI]*60<br />- I then selected an independent 40 game sample, and calculated each team's PP GF/60 in respect thereof<br />- I then looked at how each of the four above variables ( PP GF/60 , PP SF/60, PP Fenwick/60, PP Corsi/60), as calculated over the 1st sample of games, predicted PP GF/60 over the 2nd sample of games<br />- I repeated this exercise 1000 times<br />- I then repeated the entire exercise for the 2008-09 and 2009-10 regular seasons<br /><br />The results:<br /><br /></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzGhEXpBcaIlF3PvQZg4XgzQzCOwla7NA3Z8ljwFaAtoqjcpi7vp2mE7S-sqYE_ikos7_kWgPB_cBnaphFo1MSSYWmotVyPL40Y45n9VDvN5jdzLPYNPw-Sli1Fu9DPjLIGV8cGm2W2bI/s1600/ppfenwickcorsi.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 57px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzGhEXpBcaIlF3PvQZg4XgzQzCOwla7NA3Z8ljwFaAtoqjcpi7vp2mE7S-sqYE_ikos7_kWgPB_cBnaphFo1MSSYWmotVyPL40Y45n9VDvN5jdzLPYNPw-Sli1Fu9DPjLIGV8cGm2W2bI/s400/ppfenwickcorsi.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5601671385524273346" border="0" /></a><br />Just like Gabe Desjardins found, shot production is a better predictor of future powerplay success relative to raw performance (with respect to 40 game sample sizes). And while missed shots have some informational value, blocked shots do not.<br /><br />Does the same apply to the penalty skill? Interestingly, no.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7zu6Fix2mI8_xDY8wbfNlV2sx_TL_8S8aOIECxvpNwmUxvWi6d1cxxM9zGOQvJcKEg37oHhp5HQJwUPH-VD9CB9Fq6Sf-szPacztWUS9WYNygXUU5Wi96DUyMhhF-XVFIBi1nVf8jTsr/s1600/PKfenwickcorsi.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 57px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE7zu6Fix2mI8_xDY8wbfNlV2sx_TL_8S8aOIECxvpNwmUxvWi6d1cxxM9zGOQvJcKEg37oHhp5HQJwUPH-VD9CB9Fq6Sf-szPacztWUS9WYNygXUU5Wi96DUyMhhF-XVFIBi1nVf8jTsr/s400/PKfenwickcorsi.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5602226865717930258" border="0" /></a><br />Unlike with the powerplay, raw performance on the penalty kill (over a 40 game sample) is a superior predictor of future PK performance than is shot prevention. Part of that can be attributed to the fact that penalty skill save percentage is considerably <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/04/repeatability-of-special-teams.html">more reliable</a> than powerplay shooting percentage.<br /><br />Furthermore, including misses and blocks is of no assistance. It seems as though better penalty kills force their opponents to take a greater proportion of missed and blocked shots.<br /><br /><br /></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-57600205508887352402011-04-28T17:37:00.000-07:002011-04-28T18:11:44.395-07:002nd Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities and Predictions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIHyimrP6A8g7oT1qKH0HAPF_BmInjfaQHSRRwpv2BfDOM_e6PcWX_r-uRG35qj5JT7rrFfzo9sB-dSvnAaOe3Our_EaU_uKgLZmzRYs2xNRIJC_Yab_cLTHsUHeT-8k-CJFgfFODvgI13/s1600/second+round+probabilities.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 238px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIHyimrP6A8g7oT1qKH0HAPF_BmInjfaQHSRRwpv2BfDOM_e6PcWX_r-uRG35qj5JT7rrFfzo9sB-dSvnAaOe3Our_EaU_uKgLZmzRYs2xNRIJC_Yab_cLTHsUHeT-8k-CJFgfFODvgI13/s400/second+round+probabilities.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5600798485706525090" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-style: italic;">[ For an explanation, see </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/04/1st-round-1011-playoff-probabilities.html">here</a><span style="font-style: italic;"> ]</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">VAN - NSH</span><br /><br />The Canucks get a slightly easier draw here as compared to round one. The skill difference between these teams is smaller than what the regular season results would imply, but Vancouver is clearly better and should advance.<br /><br />Van in 5.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S.J – DET</span><br /><br />Pick em'. The odds in the table above suggest that the Sharks have the edge, but I reckon that these two teams are pretty even to one another. I'll take San Jose because of home ice.<br /><br />S.J in 7.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">WSH-T.B</span><br /><br />These two teams are pretty close, with the numbers suggesting that Washington is slightly better. Combine that with the fact that my instinct says that the Caps are a better team than the numbers show (based on roster composition and past performance), and I'm left with no choice but to take them.<br /><br />WSH in 6.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />PHI-BOS</span><br /><br />Like S.J-DET, I suspect this is pretty close to a coinflip. I'll concede that Philly appears to have the better team on paper, but the numbers favor Boston. I'll take the Bruins in seven games.<br /><br /><span>BOS in 7</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /></span></div></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-65390920009638651022011-04-14T00:15:00.000-07:002011-04-14T00:17:51.084-07:00Playoff Outcome Probabilities<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCfcq3KVV4lZvWbGdYe113YbN2AxyhLBe0_82lEhdBbsIu8eutQG3kuVMqcwIn5C2s3XjaSjmO5QuImIwI9v0yzBqudWepPhP8KPzOKSB0jNpFRcVT0M7xwtHWIES5Z6DhdqlvJ4GP3h0g/s1600/1011CupProbabilities.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 373px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCfcq3KVV4lZvWbGdYe113YbN2AxyhLBe0_82lEhdBbsIu8eutQG3kuVMqcwIn5C2s3XjaSjmO5QuImIwI9v0yzBqudWepPhP8KPzOKSB0jNpFRcVT0M7xwtHWIES5Z6DhdqlvJ4GP3h0g/s400/1011CupProbabilities.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5595334885834470674" border="0" /></a><br />Self Explanatory. Based on each team's expected winning percentage, as shown <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/04/1st-round-1011-playoff-probabilities.html">here</a>.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-47334481780634790302011-04-13T15:00:00.000-07:002011-04-13T15:59:08.460-07:001st Round 1011 Playoff Predictions<span style="font-weight: bold;">VAN - CHI</span><br /><br />I reckon the Blackhawks are the strongest 8th seed that the league has seen since the current playoff format was adopted in 1994 (runner up: 1995 New York Rangers). Very tough matchup for Vancouver, especially considering that they could have easily drawn a substantially inferior club in the Stars. All of that said, I'm going with Vancouver here. While the Canucks probably aren't as strong as their regular season numbers would suggest, they still appear to be the league's best team.<br /><br />VAN in 7.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S.J –L.A</span><br /><br />As I mentioned a few days ago, San Jose has been simply outstanding since the halfway mark. While the Kings are respectable, they're in tough here given their injuries to key players and the quality of the opponent. I expect San Jose to advance.<br /><br />S.J in 5.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">DET-PHX</span><br /><br />I like both of these teams so I'm disappointed that one of them will be out when the dust settles. The evidence suggests that Phoenix will be that team. Detroit is better territorially at EV and considerably better on special teams. The Coyotes will require more than a few things to go right for them in order to win.<br /><br />DET in 5.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />ANA-NSH</span><br /><br />Of the four Western series, this one captures my interest the most. I think that Anaheim is far and away the worst team to qualify this year. While their special teams seem to be above average, they were dead last in the entire league in terms of corsi ratio. The Predators, on the other hand, are competent on special teams and an average to above average club at evens. Not a difficult pick.<br /><br /><span>NSH in 6</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">WSH – NYR</span><br /><br />Like in the case of VAN-CHI, these two teams are closer in ability to one another than is typical in a #1-#8 matchup. I find that the Rangers are a hard team to get a read on. Even though they're decidedly below average territorially at EV, I really like their team on paper - the forward group, in particular. Their regular season scoring chance numbers are also very good.<br /><br />All things considered, I'm going to trust my model and go with the Caps.<br /><br />WSH in 6.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">PHI – BUF</span><br /><br />This series doesn't really appeal to me all that much. Despite their recent struggles, and Buffalo's improved play over the course of the year, Philadelphia strikes me as the better team. I see them narrowly edging the Sabres here.<br /><br />PHI in 7.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">BOS – MTL</span><br /><br />Results notwithstanding, the Canadiens might be the league's most improved team this year, given the way that they were manhandled last year in terms of shots and scoring chances. They're actually better than Boston with respect to outshooting at even strength, which I find surprising in light of last year's numbers.<br /><br />The Bruins are my pick, though. I think they have the better team on paper, not to mention the fact that my model also has them as the better team.<br /><br />BOS in 7.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">PIT – T.B</span><br /><br />Given Pittsburgh's injuries to two of its best players, I figure this series is pretty close to a coin flip. I prefer Pittsburgh on the basis of Crosby's potential return to the lineup and the fact that their underlying numbers remained very strong down the stretch<br /><br />PIT in 7.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-60397666306887472362011-04-13T13:54:00.000-07:002011-04-13T14:53:02.476-07:001st Round 1011 Playoff Probabilities<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJfEXaGLa7Hl6ZmEO1Y7K9_E4Au_ag7HrCrw2VxRRX5IMroUD95lFk59flfQqmy1JSO1lvpwV9YN1G64BuDyt4VePWEal3h0hFbsMr_EzuQEFMLsWRqUgrQzzoKy-I2pvzu8ViaLUCeHF/s1600/1011playoffwinningpercentages.bmp"><br /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiy1FpOoP4BAUVtM2VDPIuI2flmI1L-sSohf49XT17yix2xj2BbiJzAtrxq32iWMfvoqcAVg24vA3x2I9jZ5GmGvLdMy5qDqbOIVBm-z17KYfGxmgVsa8CGMfcVCXg4O9TscxcKqRLfy6G/s1600/0910Round1Probabilities.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 149px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiy1FpOoP4BAUVtM2VDPIuI2flmI1L-sSohf49XT17yix2xj2BbiJzAtrxq32iWMfvoqcAVg24vA3x2I9jZ5GmGvLdMy5qDqbOIVBm-z17KYfGxmgVsa8CGMfcVCXg4O9TscxcKqRLfy6G/s400/0910Round1Probabilities.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5595178098320686098" border="0" /></a><br />The information in the table is pretty straightforward - it simply shows each team's probability of advancing as well as the probability of winning in a particular number of games. So, for example, Vancouver has a 61.8% chance of advancing and a 9% chance of doing so in a sweep.<br /><br />The manner in which the odds were computed, however, requires some explanation. The method I used was similar to the <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/04/playoff-probabilities.html">"underlying numbers"</a> method I employed last year, but some changes have been made. They include:<br /><br /><ol><li>Each team's expected shot differential was calculated on the basis of adjusted corsi - that is, overall corsi adjusted for how often each team played with the lead and trailed during the regular season. This is in contrast to last year's method, which used score tied corsi for this purpose. I elected to switch to adjusted corsi because it has more predictive power in relation to future results than both score tied corsi and overall corsi.</li><li>I regressed each team's EV shooting and save percentage based on the extent to which the seasonal variation for each statistic can be attributed to non-luck. This differs from last year's method, in which each team was assigned a league average EV shooting percentage, with team EV save percentage computed on the basis of the overall career EV save percentage of the starting goaltender<br /></li><li>I regressed each team's PP and PK shot rates and percentages on the same basis as above when calculating each team's expected special teams scoring rates. Last year, I (erroneously) assumed no skill component for the percentages and elected not to regress shooting rates.</li><li>Each team's expected PP and PK time on ice was calculated on the basis of it's predicted powerplay differential as well as its expected special teams scoring rates ( the latter adjustment is necessary given that a more efficient powerplay, as well as a less efficient penalty kill, will lead to fewer powerplay and penalty kill minutes, respectively). I actually performed the exact same calculation last year, with the only difference being the manner in which I determined predicted powerplay differential. Last year, raw powerplay differential was used. This year, powerplay differential was adjusted to reflect the percentage of team variation attributable to luck.</li></ol>The application of the above method rendered the following expected winning percentages for each playoff team:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJfEXaGLa7Hl6ZmEO1Y7K9_E4Au_ag7HrCrw2VxRRX5IMroUD95lFk59flfQqmy1JSO1lvpwV9YN1G64BuDyt4VePWEal3h0hFbsMr_EzuQEFMLsWRqUgrQzzoKy-I2pvzu8ViaLUCeHF/s1600/1011playoffwinningpercentages.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 162px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJfEXaGLa7Hl6ZmEO1Y7K9_E4Au_ag7HrCrw2VxRRX5IMroUD95lFk59flfQqmy1JSO1lvpwV9YN1G64BuDyt4VePWEal3h0hFbsMr_EzuQEFMLsWRqUgrQzzoKy-I2pvzu8ViaLUCeHF/s400/1011playoffwinningpercentages.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5595184756969213314" border="0" /></a><br />I then simulated each series 10000 times based on each team's expected winning percentage, which produced the odds displayed in the table at the top of the post.<br /><br />In terms of predictive power, I have adjusted goal differential data for every season since the lockout (up to 2009-10), in which the adjustment was made using a similar but slightly different method than the one described in this post. I found that the adjusted goal differentials proved to be a superior predictor of the results of individual playoff games during that timeframe when compared to raw goal differential (empty netters removed).<br /><br />I also found that the adjusted goal differentials better predicted how a team performed in the following regular season relative to raw goal differential.<br /><br />I wanted to get this post up before the puck drop for Wednesday's games, so I wasn't able to include everything I wanted to content-wise. I plan to post cup probabilities and some more information relating to the method used to calculated the above odds.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-77324785414138450342011-04-12T00:15:00.000-07:002011-04-12T18:12:23.446-07:00Cumulative Score Tied Corsi<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZe_CUycBzsGPqLDnFg1GZea1wYI-PhGbfuQoWV4dgSmRYneuBxcOeykHvk2Y0ybGbXSoGcgL8BouGDtCGK2A3b6RHvohUjD_CFCx7W1ZKNng_TkPvm-M73Ci8dDnjy1MhkfiHR2vtqpYj/s1600/T.BPITCHART.bmp"><br /></a><br />I plan to put up a post on the probabilities for each 1st round series either tomorrow or Wednesday during the day. In the meantime, I figured I'd throw up these charts showing the cumulative score tied corsi totals for all of the playoff teams.<br /><br />There are eight charts in all, one for each series.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0TzkO8oxjlYY7R4xTz1UmgV8pevq6ggz2Ovo_9IDStp3GLb6o9qLkTK47wAonJyCbryr3Emd6Wzc1jqUmKKMiC_rp23JhXwr0h7rX6bfTXYh_MJ4HNAP4SvniDcTV-qpt-AqAKymkSgim/s1600/VANCHICHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0TzkO8oxjlYY7R4xTz1UmgV8pevq6ggz2Ovo_9IDStp3GLb6o9qLkTK47wAonJyCbryr3Emd6Wzc1jqUmKKMiC_rp23JhXwr0h7rX6bfTXYh_MJ4HNAP4SvniDcTV-qpt-AqAKymkSgim/s400/VANCHICHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594597127151207330" border="0" /></a><br />Two of the league's strongest teams will engage in a first round battle. Should be a great series.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjMLZ5V9j2j-ElK0RRr92YG3-Qo5qTFV8exaH3Kps6kHDGleMODz42ooJ_60t0kVzDxMmH1B7auzYV13KaRdQgJ3A4MwaxRVECdKdLo3zliF-RUZU9LR4rHf6AR6rLOTK4yLViNGem5NA6/s1600/L.AS.JChart.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjMLZ5V9j2j-ElK0RRr92YG3-Qo5qTFV8exaH3Kps6kHDGleMODz42ooJ_60t0kVzDxMmH1B7auzYV13KaRdQgJ3A4MwaxRVECdKdLo3zliF-RUZU9LR4rHf6AR6rLOTK4yLViNGem5NA6/s400/L.AS.JChart.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594597473257158034" border="0" /></a><br />Both of these teams have improved in this measure as the year has progressed, although San Jose exhibits the more extreme profile - the Sharks have been ridiculously good since the halfway mark.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSBJJKvwsQUijooux9b5xIgYSIHq8JiZZDw07JzDNShkxtb_-iF2YSYwUrnhSiYIEc9o238mj-JKbxZNQWE5XMjburKOqgEkF_g3mn3lzgj1BqbrcowGlRnoD0t3bFyleQpCO6vv7Ar6O-/s1600/PHXDETCHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 237px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSBJJKvwsQUijooux9b5xIgYSIHq8JiZZDw07JzDNShkxtb_-iF2YSYwUrnhSiYIEc9o238mj-JKbxZNQWE5XMjburKOqgEkF_g3mn3lzgj1BqbrcowGlRnoD0t3bFyleQpCO6vv7Ar6O-/s400/PHXDETCHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594597935888291810" border="0" /></a>Detroit looks like the better EV team by a fair margin, actual goal differentials notwithstanding.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGQx9myQgh-Bmmf-if3MW8SeuUxCLhbVlbQhbG1lE05jGhMIU97a8H8m2stw1BXOd_LRQw_DzQ84VxjnEWndlNKtExCXzCKvYGGufr0VW7mT2iAUKrltbKQNuUPQ0z9CfDmpv3HAjiXNWE/s1600/NSHANACHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGQx9myQgh-Bmmf-if3MW8SeuUxCLhbVlbQhbG1lE05jGhMIU97a8H8m2stw1BXOd_LRQw_DzQ84VxjnEWndlNKtExCXzCKvYGGufr0VW7mT2iAUKrltbKQNuUPQ0z9CfDmpv3HAjiXNWE/s400/NSHANACHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594598434338923282" border="0" /></a><br />I've noticed that the Ducks are getting labeled as a "hot" team, but the evidence doesn't support that. They've been terrible territorially at EV all season, including down the stretch. NSH is the better team.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFAYfKADdZCf-QbjLBwwj7FRGo2oxnsNirFAWnN7u0N75kyzepwUyX_AISm-OVtQwLAWW8H7i2emH8400vaYuEVhFOvKQp8YE_MEXb1vwr-m3xpwwJEBE9Gu6PEhq8XOXteNJ-Ys_60Mj/s1600/NYRWSHCHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 237px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFAYfKADdZCf-QbjLBwwj7FRGo2oxnsNirFAWnN7u0N75kyzepwUyX_AISm-OVtQwLAWW8H7i2emH8400vaYuEVhFOvKQp8YE_MEXb1vwr-m3xpwwJEBE9Gu6PEhq8XOXteNJ-Ys_60Mj/s400/NYRWSHCHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594598604541852370" border="0" /></a><br />Not much to say here. The Caps seem inconsistent whereas the Rangers have been consistently in the red.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSrcoLBNan9Use8ZPb-dTZwsstaNpOms-qQb_IOimloeUtnT7qJUNVPZacfZRwr9b90Ye233VT37J39rX7LC82CpNaOHn193txgOtOxH2H4p1AjI4EW_I_LjYkzDjeILqMIwMUl6r6HYBq/s1600/BUFPHICHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 236px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSrcoLBNan9Use8ZPb-dTZwsstaNpOms-qQb_IOimloeUtnT7qJUNVPZacfZRwr9b90Ye233VT37J39rX7LC82CpNaOHn193txgOtOxH2H4p1AjI4EW_I_LjYkzDjeILqMIwMUl6r6HYBq/s400/BUFPHICHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594599807651977154" border="0" /></a>Two teams seemingly going in opposite directions, but Philly is still better on aggregate.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYJRA6rzQ0qA58Mioq8yqnck4nJ96DLnpYmSF519j-8ufMcibSbrvp0BFYeRk4Sg-OOhEXr_j8Vjea71gFZACvNk9nLokdB3yTHG5FwvT-upj9GOfcfSLkrVXmc_raP6kwYNByAavCM_Ii/s1600/MTLBOSTCHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 235px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYJRA6rzQ0qA58Mioq8yqnck4nJ96DLnpYmSF519j-8ufMcibSbrvp0BFYeRk4Sg-OOhEXr_j8Vjea71gFZACvNk9nLokdB3yTHG5FwvT-upj9GOfcfSLkrVXmc_raP6kwYNByAavCM_Ii/s400/MTLBOSTCHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594600174009606994" border="0" /></a>Shocking. The Bruins were +415 better than the Habs by this measure in 09-10.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZe_CUycBzsGPqLDnFg1GZea1wYI-PhGbfuQoWV4dgSmRYneuBxcOeykHvk2Y0ybGbXSoGcgL8BouGDtCGK2A3b6RHvohUjD_CFCx7W1ZKNng_TkPvm-M73Ci8dDnjy1MhkfiHR2vtqpYj/s1600/T.BPITCHART.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 234px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZe_CUycBzsGPqLDnFg1GZea1wYI-PhGbfuQoWV4dgSmRYneuBxcOeykHvk2Y0ybGbXSoGcgL8BouGDtCGK2A3b6RHvohUjD_CFCx7W1ZKNng_TkPvm-M73Ci8dDnjy1MhkfiHR2vtqpYj/s400/T.BPITCHART.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5594869498103510466" border="0" /></a>T.B is pretty underwhelming here but they blocked a tonne of shots at EV. Injuries have hurt PIT.<br /><br />EDIT: Accidentally used Philly's numbers for Pittsburgh. The chart has been corrected.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-85867766585517157082011-04-07T23:58:00.001-07:002011-04-09T15:07:33.303-07:00Loose Ends - Part III B: The Power PlayThis is basically an extension of my <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/04/loose-ends-part-iii-the-power-play.html">previous post</a>, which looked at whether team talent differences in terms of shooting percentage are larger on the powerplay or at even strength.<br /><br />The purpose of this post is to explore a related issue, that being the relationship between even strength shooting percentage and powerplay shooting percentage. In particular, the extent to which even strength shooting talent and powerplay shooting talent are distinct skills.<br /><br />In the six seasons from 2003-04 to 2009-10, the average seasonal correlation between the two variables at the team level was 0.296.* While that may seem small, it must be remembered that lucks accounts for a majority of the team to team variation for both metrics. That is to say, each team's single season performance with respect to each metric provides a relatively poor estimate of it's true talent.<br /><br />As discussed in a previous post, the 'true' correlation between two variables can be approximated so long as three pieces of information are known:<br /><br />1. The reliability co-efficient of the first variable in respect of a given sample size.<br />2. The reliability co-efficient of the second variable in respect of the same sample size.<br />3. The correlation between the two variables observed in respect of the same sample size.<br /><br />I elected to use 40 games as my sample. In calculating the reliability co-efficients, I determined the correlation between one randomly selected 40 game sample and another 40 game sample, each independent of the other. I then calculated the correlation between those two variables with respect to one of the 40 game samples. Finally, I averaged all three correlations over 1000 simulations and repeated the entire exercise for every season from 2003-04 to 2009-10. Here are the results:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Wkwnh_8oIMA7d1luOVwJY1MAfOHPswOPQNrWJGuHQ6cSHY2wkKDwEPYD9KqEhA9nm7OG-GP0ecwUEVHWZ1JnnrKTRWVgwlBOmkd9hLzh5Twr7yzLMuPwOG6WEw9ubZoo_7j_EDsRXymH/s1600/relationshipEVPPSH%2525.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 206px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7Wkwnh_8oIMA7d1luOVwJY1MAfOHPswOPQNrWJGuHQ6cSHY2wkKDwEPYD9KqEhA9nm7OG-GP0ecwUEVHWZ1JnnrKTRWVgwlBOmkd9hLzh5Twr7yzLMuPwOG6WEw9ubZoo_7j_EDsRXymH/s400/relationshipEVPPSH%2525.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5593699063237731154" border="0" /></a><br />As indicated, the average split-half correlation between even strength and powerplay percentage over the six year sample was 0.167. The average split-half reliability of powerplay shooting percentage was 0.078, and the average split-half reliability of even strength shooting percentage was 0.205.<br /><br />Having ascertained all three necessary pieces of information, those values can then be inputted into the below formula in order to approximate the true correlation between the two variables.<br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;">r xy adjusted = r xy observed/ SQRT( reliability x * reliability y)<br />r xy adjusted = 0.167 / SQRT ( 0.078 * 0.205)<br />r xy adjusted = 1.32*</span>*<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">This result implies that both powerplay shooting percentage and even strength shooting percentage are actually measuring the same underlying skill.<br /><br />Is this result surprising? I would argue that it is not. We can reasonably assume that team differences in even strength shooting talent are concentrated at the top half of the roster. In other words, I don't think that the bottom six forwards and bottom pairing defencemen for any given team have materially more shooting talent relative to the lower end players on any other team. As powerplay time tends to be overwhelmingly awarded to players that also receive the most even strength ice time, we should therefore expect a close relationship between even strength and powerplay shooting percentage, once sample size limitations are accounted for. That's precisely what we find.<br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><br />*even strength goals were removed from the data for all figures referenced in this post.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">** Nothing should turn on the fact that the correlation is larger than 1. If the average observed correlation was only slightly smaller, and the average reliability values only slightly larger, the adjusted correlation would very nearly equal 1. For example, if 2009-10 is excluded from the data, the average correlation changes to 0.145, and the two reliability values become 0.122 and 0.21. If these latter values are substituted into the equation, a more reasonable adjusted correlation of 0.91 is obtained. </span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /></div></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-54383460466464956762011-04-07T20:51:00.000-07:002011-05-17T00:41:26.455-07:00Loose Ends - Part III A: The Power Play<span style="font-weight: bold;">[EDIT:</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">It appears that I made an error when calculating the skill standard deviations for EV and PP shooting percentage at the team level. The tables and numbers referenced in the post have been edited to reflect the correct values.]</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">______________________________________________<br /><br /></div>I've written about the powerplay a <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2009/05/pp-s-percentage-correction.html">few</a> <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/04/repeatability-of-special-teams.html">times</a> in the past, with one post focusing specifically on the powerplay itself, and the other relating to special teams performance in general.<br /><br />The purpose of this post is not only to address some questions that were left unanswered by the two previous ones, but also to look at two as yet unaddressed (at least, unaddressed to the best of my knowledge) issues relating to the powerplay.<br /><br />Because the treatment of each issue is relatively extensive, I've decided to address them in separate posts.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">______________________________<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">The first issue relates to whether powerplay shooting percentage is more or less 'random' than even strength shooting percentage. Admittedly, the use of the term 'random' leads to some confusion here. For both metrics, skill - or more properly, non-luck - would account for 100% of the team to team variation over the long run. What we're really after is whether the team spread in powerplay shooting talent is wider or narrower than the team spread in even strength shooting talent.<br /><br />In a post from earlier this year, I included a table that showed the percentage of variation attributable to luck for various shooting metrics over the course of the regular season, based on data from the post-lockout era. I've reproduced that table below.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKS_zyNyPwb_yCmkDPId9Zl59XhW36yP7iHjHXPy81uvHoT-0zV3RB852ueBSQLPbncEAY6icUaiRzPCxtob9iZ822DaTz3bHWX930J4m2qrIt-GNSgfVb27LvDm6a2W_raovYYHsm3vPk/s1600/averageluckvariance.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 137px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKS_zyNyPwb_yCmkDPId9Zl59XhW36yP7iHjHXPy81uvHoT-0zV3RB852ueBSQLPbncEAY6icUaiRzPCxtob9iZ822DaTz3bHWX930J4m2qrIt-GNSgfVb27LvDm6a2W_raovYYHsm3vPk/s400/averageluckvariance.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5593062974493032930" border="0" /></a>As indicated, whereas roughly 90% of the team variation in powerplay shooting percentage can be attributed to luck by the end of the regular season, the corresponding figure for even strength shooting percentage is only 67%.<br /><br />Unfortunately, this fails to resolve our issue, for the reasons specified earlier. Teams take much fewer shots on the powerplay over the course of the regular season as compared to even strength. The disparity in sample size must be controlled for.<br /><br />Coincidentally, this very issue arose in the comments section of a <a href="http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/4/4/2088330/who-has-the-best-pp-in-the-league#comments">post</a> made at behindthenet earlier this week. While I was in the process of working on this post at the time, I figured I'd <a href="http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/4/4/2088330/who-has-the-best-pp-in-the-league#63133746">address the matter</a> then and there. Here's what I had to say:<br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;"><div id="comment_body_63133746" class="cbody"> <p>Using seasons since the lockout, the variation in EV SH% at the team level is 33% skill and 66% luck, whereas the variation in PP SH% at the team level is 9% skill and 91% luck.</p> <p>But the average team takes far fewer shots on the powerplay (~500) than at even strength (~1800). It goes without saying that the % of variation due to luck varies as a function of sample size (i.e. number of shots).</p> <p>In order to compare apples to apples, it’s necessary figure out how many extra goals a team that is one standard deviation above the league average with respect to EV shooting talent can expect to score over a team that is exactly league average in that respect, per X number of shots.</p> <p>If the same calculation is repeated in relation to powerplay shooting percentage, the results can be compared.</p> <p>We’ll use 1000 as the value for x, which is the number of shots.</p> <p>The results:</p> <p>EV SH% – 2.64<br />PP SH% – 1.43</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">[EDIT: The correct values are 4.83 for EV SH% and 4.77 PP SH%]</span><br /></p> <p>So a team one standard deviation above the mean with respect to EV shooting talent can expect to score 2.64 more goals than a team with average EV shooting talent, per 1000 shots.</p> <p>(We’ll ignore the fact that EV shooting talent and EV outshooting appear to be negatively correlated at the team level).</p> <p>And a team one standard deviation above the mean with respect to PP shooting talent can expect to score 1.43 more goals than a team with average PP shooting talent, per 1000 shots.</p> <p>So the implication is that team talent differences in EV SH% are wider than team talent differences in PP SH%.</p> </div></blockquote><br />So there you have it. Team talent differences in shooting talent on the powerplay appear to be smaller than team talent differences in even strength shooting percentage.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">[EDIT: The correct values suggest that team skill differences in powerplay shooting percentage are roughly equal in size to team skill differences in even strength shooting percentage.]</span><br /><br />One drawback with my method was that I looked at overall powerplay shooting percentage, rather than 5-on-4 shooting percentage. It's possible that the inclusion of other man-advantage situations (5-on-3s, namely) has affected our result.<br /><br />In order to make sure that that wasn't the case, I made sure to ran the numbers for 5-on-4 shooting percentage as well, using the data available on <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/">behindthenet</a>. Here are those results:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBPZgIRYD_9vOYEkqw0hO_r4vfCWQW84UVhS6i-pvs-Ean637bl80v-CsSFVSE1F7_XVb8DAVqQYPwvK0iUaOXCAig0bXppYhsRsUOYysqncPfqPmdqUT_wen3s4-E_SlSGl64ILrn3_zM/s1600/5-on-4shootingtalentversusEVshootingtalentcorrected.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 94px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBPZgIRYD_9vOYEkqw0hO_r4vfCWQW84UVhS6i-pvs-Ean637bl80v-CsSFVSE1F7_XVb8DAVqQYPwvK0iUaOXCAig0bXppYhsRsUOYysqncPfqPmdqUT_wen3s4-E_SlSGl64ILrn3_zM/s400/5-on-4shootingtalentversusEVshootingtalentcorrected.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5607586497379039986" border="0" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfRLGC9-NhoGBHc1dvQsq02_i9bBHTFD74204fKrcD5Ddw164vau_cdVpmdjxwrE_fE3UM2FU3ZXE3J3Zr_bFCRZbXNF8SFWBGFUrxxM2Kx2P9MuJpnZ4bgaDS9jMcSoy72V0eLUXUXuHR/s1600/5-on-4EVSH%2525.bmp"><br /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% RANDOM</span> = percentage of variation attributable to randomness<br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% Skill</span> = percentage of variation not attributable to randomness<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1 Sigma/1000 </span>= </span><span style="font-style: italic;">the number of goals a team one standard deviation above the mean in 5-on-4 or EV shooting talent (as the case may be) would be expected to score, relative to an average team, over the course of 1000 shots]</span></span><br /></div><br />While the differences between the two values are smaller when the 5-on-4 numbers are used, the conclusion remains - teams appear to be more varied with respect to even strength shooting talent as compared to powerplay shooting talent.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">[EDIT: If anything, the correct values indicate the opposite - that teams appear to be more varied with respect to 5-on-4 shooting talent as compared to even strength shooting talent.]</span><br /><br />How confident can we be that teams are, in fact, more deviated from one another in terms of even strength shooting talent than powerplay shooting talent? Not very. There is some uncertainty in our estimate for the luck component of powerplay shooting percentage at the team level over the course of a season. The figure of 91% is based on an observed standard deviation of 0.158 and a predicted standard deviation of 0.015. If the observed standard deviation was 0.0165 - i.e. slightly higher - then our estimate for the luck component would change to 84%. If the luck component was 84%, our 1 sigma/1000 value then becomes 2.55, which is comparable to the 2.64 1 sigma/1000 value obtained for even strength shooting percentage.<br /><br />In other words, it's quite possible that teams are similarly distanced from one another with respect to both measures. Support for this proposition will be offered in the next post on this subject.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-44083432477190803612011-03-19T15:34:00.000-07:002011-03-19T17:59:42.971-07:00Loose Ends - Part II: Score Effects and Minor Penalties<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1GW5j7IEdqPEOlgU4tvwx6GDSsP-Mwc6TD8Q0oJJ6hIGcb8vhlCIMXVD7u_Q5HhYwgBvwMKNkGPKVEyJbZB5pzpOUBphpLYIgxpQxjur_YpiemkPGXCl7mObA9-Hq1X1enzSTJVVtIVO4/s1600/expectedpenaltydifferentialgoaldifferential.bmp"><br /></a><br />Back in November of last year, I looked at whether there were any <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/11/score-effects-and-minor-penalties.html">score effects in relation to minor penalties</a>. The conclusion? Playing from behind has a significant positive effect on powerplay differential. That is, teams tend to be much better at drawing penalties when trailing, as compared to when leading or when the game is tied.<br /><br />While my initial article only looked at data from the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons, I've since ran the numbers for 2009-10 as well. Here are the aggregate numbers for all three years:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlw8qzVupFBBKec02tSl90JoE9SpPg9I3cw7pvyOcbw2vxUBMoVYW34Hryxwxx6U1cCZjU084SYGzhvYsMB7-qFoM6fwao6L6Scl899XZ4JPAtw_85scnMB5XYKUsUP6JJsnF1LSIZmzAi/s1600/penaltypercentageupdated.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 381px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlw8qzVupFBBKec02tSl90JoE9SpPg9I3cw7pvyOcbw2vxUBMoVYW34Hryxwxx6U1cCZjU084SYGzhvYsMB7-qFoM6fwao6L6Scl899XZ4JPAtw_85scnMB5XYKUsUP6JJsnF1LSIZmzAi/s400/penaltypercentageupdated.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585934059059760386" border="0" /></a><span style="font-style: italic;">[PD=penalties drawn; PT; penalties taken; P % = penalties drawn/(penalties drawn + penalties taken)]</span><br /><br />I should include a reminder that only penalties that were not accompanied by the calling of another penalty at the same point in time were included in the above totals.<br /><br />In the original post, I asserted that trailing team's penalty advantage was not owing to its superior play, but was instead caused by favorable officiating. In support of this, I noted that actual team-to-team distributions in trailing and leading penalty percentage were roughly what one would expect them to be if the putative bias affected all teams equally.<br /><br />Although I remain confident that my assertion was correct, I suspect that others may have found my explanation to be less than convincing. And in turning my attention to the subject for a second time, I think that there's a better way in which I can illustrate my point.<br /><br />In determining whether the trailing team's penalty advantage is the product of bias or earned on merit, it becomes necessary to ask what result we would expect to observe, based on what we know about what causes some teams to be better at drawing penalties than others.<br /><br />One of those causes is even strength outshooting. If we look at the relationship between EV tied Corsi and tied penalty differential over the last three seasons, each unit increment in the latter equates to 0.027 in the former.<br /><br />It's well established that the average team does much better in terms of Corsi when playing from behind. Over the three years in question, trailing teams had a collective Corsi percentage of 0.552 (107706 For, 87079 Against). Given the positive relationship that exists between outshooting and penalty differential when the score is tied, the trailing team's advantage in Corsi may be able to account for it's advantage in penalty percentage.<br /><br />However, upon performing the required calculations, it becomes clear that this factor can only explain part of the difference.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzItN_lowGXONdjtjW4-qIFz85b3az_1WdSG1b-rVPKeV98r3KSvbthR6xxnHpnvpqakv6Lip_Yf29cQtCB1GZF1VwYpAEdlrvLMXmVhJN2IGIt79UYAA8jNHapOZ3d_A9aoeCs1e1j_N2/s1600/trailingteampenalties.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 85px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzItN_lowGXONdjtjW4-qIFz85b3az_1WdSG1b-rVPKeV98r3KSvbthR6xxnHpnvpqakv6Lip_Yf29cQtCB1GZF1VwYpAEdlrvLMXmVhJN2IGIt79UYAA8jNHapOZ3d_A9aoeCs1e1j_N2/s400/trailingteampenalties.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585952406898358418" border="0" /></a><br />In other words, only about one third of the gap can be attributed to outshooting.<br /><br />Not only that, but it's clear that the shot statistics flatter the trailing team, given that playing from behind encourages a team to take more risks and play more desperately. For example, during the period in question, trailing teams only scored 51.9% of all non-empty net even strength goals (4623 For, 4292 Against), despite, as mentioned above, generating 55.2% of all Corsi events. It's more than arguable that goal differential, and not Corsi differential, provides the best measure of how well the trailing team actually performs.<br /><br />As with outshooting, there is a positive relationship between even strength goal differential and penalty differential when the score is tied. Based on data from the three seasons in question, each net goal is worth 0.26 in net penalties drawn. We're able to use this figure to determine what kind of penalty advantage we'd expect the trailing team to have, based on its goal differential.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1GW5j7IEdqPEOlgU4tvwx6GDSsP-Mwc6TD8Q0oJJ6hIGcb8vhlCIMXVD7u_Q5HhYwgBvwMKNkGPKVEyJbZB5pzpOUBphpLYIgxpQxjur_YpiemkPGXCl7mObA9-Hq1X1enzSTJVVtIVO4/s1600/expectedpenaltydifferentialgoaldifferential.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 85px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1GW5j7IEdqPEOlgU4tvwx6GDSsP-Mwc6TD8Q0oJJ6hIGcb8vhlCIMXVD7u_Q5HhYwgBvwMKNkGPKVEyJbZB5pzpOUBphpLYIgxpQxjur_YpiemkPGXCl7mObA9-Hq1X1enzSTJVVtIVO4/s400/expectedpenaltydifferentialgoaldifferential.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585957844451988562" border="0" /></a><br />As the table indicates, we would expect the trailing team to do only slightly better than the leading team in terms of penalty differential on the basis of its advantage in even strength goal differential. Thus, however which way you approach it, referee bias must account for a substantial part - and probably almost all - of the penalty gap.<br /> JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-72171932106950665442011-03-17T19:15:00.000-07:002011-03-18T21:47:27.666-07:00Loose Ends - Part I: Predicting Future Success<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKeQEOspCrTDT084stz4uKcYVuUvCcqmtA1mjQ-EUZirz5CtlbXyW1bii1rvScJVvkbdzW3g0rkjv7BT8jED4n1-WHCphuq4yFhTRBkRBaV2ihM7ZOv_iH5uPbFEc8J0SLCW96Pua-3NO/s1600/predictivevalidityofEVgoalratio.bmp"><br /></a><br />My plan is to put out a series of posts - hopefully all within the next while - that relate to subjects that I've posted on previously. The object of these posts is to address certain outstanding issues that weren't resolved when I tackled these subjects the first time around.<br /><br />The first post in the series is an extension of a <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/02/shots-fenwick-and-corsi.html">post</a> that I published last month that looked at how various shot metrics - all of them calculated at even strength with the score tied - predicted future success at the team level.<br /><br />One related issue that wasn't explored is how well those same shot metrics predict future success when compared to more conventional measures of team strength, such as winning percentage and goal ratio.* This question is actually more fundamental than the one investigated in the original post. After all, if shot metrics like Fenwick and Corsi failed to predict future success better than the conventional measures, then that would render them considerably less useful.<br /><br />The method employed** was similar to the one used in the <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/02/shots-fenwick-and-corsi.html">first post</a>. Because of the relative complexity of the process, including a step-by-step description may be helpful.<br /><br />Firstly, I randomly selected a certain number of games from each team's schedule, with each team having an equal number of home and road games selected.<br /><br />Secondly, I calculated how each team performed over those games with respect to certain variables. The variables that were calculated were even strength Corsi with the score tied, overall goal ratio (with empty net and shootout goals excluded), and winning percentage. Winning percentage was defined as WINS/(WINS+LOSSES). Games that ended in a shootout were considered ties, and were therefore not included in the calculation.<br /><br />I then randomly selected a second, independent group of games. That is, if a game was included in the first grouping, it was not eligible for selection in the second grouping. As with the first grouping, an equal number of home and road games were selected for each team.<br /><br />I then determined how each team did in terms of winning percentage over this second group of games, and looked at how each of the three variables calculated in relation to the first group correlated with winning percentage in the second group.<br /><br />The relationship between the size of the two groups can be expressed as y=(80-x), where x represents the number of games included in the first group, and y the number of games in the second group. So, for example, if 20 games were selected for the first group, the second group would consist of 60 games. Ultimately, I elected to use x values of 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70.<br /><br />The raw data used was from the 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 regular seasons. The table included below shows the results for each individual season, as well as the average results. The values represent the average correlation over 1000 calculations.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiVz-_MxY58Ki1K6wd1nfo-SgHzTx5NtT88bYVMp-zl9PTtwMuoJ4FAKtftZABEsNfTn4QLQMZBshrm2-XwrCcDxmXFuf92BuUJHGeryW1jlXYuHUrdKOVx2hpf3WmfqJLksKSrUH5ejGX/s1600/Predictivevalidityofwinning.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 51px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiVz-_MxY58Ki1K6wd1nfo-SgHzTx5NtT88bYVMp-zl9PTtwMuoJ4FAKtftZABEsNfTn4QLQMZBshrm2-XwrCcDxmXFuf92BuUJHGeryW1jlXYuHUrdKOVx2hpf3WmfqJLksKSrUH5ejGX/s400/Predictivevalidityofwinning.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585462900473505010" border="0" /></a>A couple points:<br /><br />- Corsi Tied is the best predictor of how a team will perform over the remainder of its schedule, regardless of the point in the schedule at which the calculation occurs.<br /><br />- Corsi Tied is only marginally more predictive of future success than goal ratio or winning percentage when looking at samples of 60 games or more. In other words, as the sample size becomes increasingly large, there are diminishing returns with respect to the predictive advantage of Corsi. By the end of the season, all three variables seem to predict future success equally well<br /><br />- The above fact has implications in terms of determining playoff probabilities at the team level, with the results suggesting that a composite metric would work best<br /><br />- The aggregate values for Goal Ratio and Winning Percentage are remarkably similar. The implication is that once shootout results are controlled for, winning percentage is as good of a measure of a team as goal ratio is<br /><br />Next up: Score Effects and Minor Penalties.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">*Some readers may have observed that the split-half reliability of goal ratio (0.417) was lower than the predictive validity co-efficients for both Corsi Tied (0.444) and Fenwick Tied (0.429). The implication is this is that the two latter variables are better able to predict goal ratio from one half of the schedule to the other than goal ratio is itself.<br /><br />** I should note that this method was actually developed and first used by <a href="http://vhockey.blogspot.com/">Vic Ferrari</a>. See <a href="http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/06/real-effects-and-team-shooting.html">here</a>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:100%;" >Addendum</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br />Scott Reynolds had a question in the comments section on how the results would differ if we looked at future EV performance rather than overall performance. Using the same method as the one described above, I looked at which of EV Corsi Tied and EV goal ratio (empty netters removed) was better able to predict future performance at even strength (which I operationalized as future EV goal ratio). Here are the results:<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKeQEOspCrTDT084stz4uKcYVuUvCcqmtA1mjQ-EUZirz5CtlbXyW1bii1rvScJVvkbdzW3g0rkjv7BT8jED4n1-WHCphuq4yFhTRBkRBaV2ihM7ZOv_iH5uPbFEc8J0SLCW96Pua-3NO/s1600/predictivevalidityofEVgoalratio.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 56px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFKeQEOspCrTDT084stz4uKcYVuUvCcqmtA1mjQ-EUZirz5CtlbXyW1bii1rvScJVvkbdzW3g0rkjv7BT8jED4n1-WHCphuq4yFhTRBkRBaV2ihM7ZOv_iH5uPbFEc8J0SLCW96Pua-3NO/s400/predictivevalidityofEVgoalratio.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5585596646462880562" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-size:100%;">The results aren't too different - Corsi Tied is a much better predictor early in the schedule, but the two measures have about the same predictive power by the end of the year.<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:100%;" >.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /></span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-32877293876646983302011-02-27T23:30:00.000-08:002011-02-27T23:39:23.210-08:00EV Data for Games 1-939<iframe width='800' height='700' frameborder='0' src='https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0Au1LsKurscG2dGpybHVqNTlpZER0czY4WWFrcWk4YkE&output=html&widget=true'></iframe><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">[If you're having difficulty viewing the document, click </span><a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au1LsKurscG2dGpybHVqNTlpZER0czY4WWFrcWk4YkE&hl=en&authkey=CMDQqosF#gid=0"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-style: italic;">here</span></span></a><span style="font-style: italic;"> to view the spreadsheet directly at googledocs.]</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Notes</span><br /><br />The document contains three worksheets. The first sheet shows even strength data for all situations. The second shows even strength data for when the score was close (i.e. whenever the score margin was 1 or 0 in the first two periods, or tied in the third period or overtime). The last sheet contains data for when the score was tied.<br /><br />Empty net goals have been removed from the data.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Missing Games List</span><br /><br />Game 124 - WSH@CAR<br />Game 429 - ATL@NYI<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Abbreviations </span><br /><br />GF: goals for<br />GA: goals against<br />SF: shots for, where shots = goals + saved shots<br />SA: shots against<br />SHOT%: shots for/(shots for + shots against)<br />SH%: shooting percentage<br />SV%: save percentage<br />PDO: shooting percentage + save percentage<br />FF: fenwick for, where fenwick = shots + missed shots<br />FA: fenwick against<br />F%: fenwick for/ (fenwick for + fenwick against)<br />CF: corsi for, where corsi = shots + missed shots + blocked shots<br />CA: corsi against<br />C%: corsi for/ (corsi for + corsi against)JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-43985002597201379282011-02-16T14:28:00.000-08:002011-02-27T12:48:54.228-08:00Shots, Fenwick and CorsiFrom time-to-time, I'll find myself surfing aimlessly throughout the hockey blogging world in search of articles, discussions, and other interesting stuff. In doing so, I'll occassionally find that others have referenced or linked to my blog. Typically, the link or reference will relate to the even strength data that I've been publishing periodically throughout the season.<br /><br />There seems to be a decided preference for EV tied and EV close data over the raw numbers. That makes sense - the raw data is subject to score effects, which makes the information less valuable with respect to distinguishing good teams from bad ones.<br /><br />Interestingly, however, there doesn't appear to be a general agreement as to which of shot, fenwick and corsi percentage serves as the best metric to use once score effects have been controlled for. While fenwick seems to be the most popular, there are some who like corsi, and there are even a few prefer shot percentage over both. This raises the question: which of the three measures ought to be looked to for the purpose of team evaluation?<br /><br />As Gabe Desjardins once correctly <a href="http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/12/brief-corroboration-of-new-jersey.html#1019843358686265674">observed</a>, there is a stronger relationship between fenwick and winning percentage than there is between corsi and winning or between shot differential and winning. In fact, according to Gabe's numbers, the correlation between corsi and winning percentage was about the same as the correlation between shot differential and winning percentage, even though including blocked shots substantially increased the sample size. The upshot is that the inclusion of blocked shots in the analysis doesn't add much information.<br /><br />Gabe's discovery may account for the slight preference towards fenwick discussed above.<br /><br />However, the weaker relationship between corsi and winning can be partially accounted for by score effects. In particular, the trailing team does better in terms of corsi than it does with respect to either shot percentage or fenwick.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ12r2gVhnmelX8Cv_v2SYTEKMi5EMjf0popPFAG0hqwykvSKfrPVZtKR8fU30TGfsskS1YOWB_cZndcu4kn_lijoPlI2CrrA_hYn_66RCN9-708xWuiakCR9p_cFIwULAWUx7OYvg2wiM/s1600/Trailingteamscf.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 78px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ12r2gVhnmelX8Cv_v2SYTEKMi5EMjf0popPFAG0hqwykvSKfrPVZtKR8fU30TGfsskS1YOWB_cZndcu4kn_lijoPlI2CrrA_hYn_66RCN9-708xWuiakCR9p_cFIwULAWUx7OYvg2wiM/s400/Trailingteamscf.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574461831970202130" border="0" /></a><br />As such, while overall corsi has a lower correlation with winning than overall fenwick, the same may not hold with respect to score tied corsi and score tied fenwick.<br /><br />In an attempt to resolve this issue, I performed a series of calculations, the results of which have been posted below.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihnrmmpK6U290oL2E1EN5rB15qLpzQEqc1omRxFnHvSr6rjofjG-zh6AS64xhcrVApCI6GxeMJzg4gUY2gOyC3woxJSbG7keY1wUo6_k6i_fxSwDK80IbzKbk9sfxZxleCBtGjgUOFqp15/s1600/splithalfreliabilitycfsgr.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 155px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihnrmmpK6U290oL2E1EN5rB15qLpzQEqc1omRxFnHvSr6rjofjG-zh6AS64xhcrVApCI6GxeMJzg4gUY2gOyC3woxJSbG7keY1wUo6_k6i_fxSwDK80IbzKbk9sfxZxleCBtGjgUOFqp15/s400/splithalfreliabilitycfsgr.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574449930172807490" border="0" /></a><br />This table shows the split-half reliabilities for score tied corsi, score tied fenwick and score tied shot percentage. The split-half reliabilities for each variable were calculated by randomly selecting 40 games, randomly selecting an independent group of 40 games (that is, a game chosen in one group was necessarily excluded from the other), and using the two data sets to determine the correlations for each variable. This was repeated 1000 times, with the above table showing the average values.<br /><br />Not surprisingly, corsi is more reliable than either fenwick or shot ratio at the half-season level, which is a product of the fact that there are simply more corsi events then fenwick or shot events in our sample. Thus, corsi should <span style="font-style: italic;">prima facie</span> be considered the superior metric of the three due to its superior reliability.<br /><br />Ignore the goal ratio column for now - it's only been included for the purpose of performing a subsequent calculation.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMls6gxjkjTEFirU7Wh_2gyVYUgtmcKlvyjQRxhfmtkfBFxtzivcDT0sJJbSvDVh1HGn1EK9i0OYrfdoKgNAjfgTyE4zq9mYlLh8sTmKjC2FuKZF5WMXSsN-NIHCeNplppWsUQwzgjtDND/s1600/predictivevalidity.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 188px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMls6gxjkjTEFirU7Wh_2gyVYUgtmcKlvyjQRxhfmtkfBFxtzivcDT0sJJbSvDVh1HGn1EK9i0OYrfdoKgNAjfgTyE4zq9mYlLh8sTmKjC2FuKZF5WMXSsN-NIHCeNplppWsUQwzgjtDND/s400/predictivevalidity.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574453526469621122" border="0" /></a><br />This table shows the predictive validity of the same three variables with respect to overall goal ratio. Here, predictive validity was determined by randomly selecting 40 games, calculating each team's score tied corsi, fenwick and shot percentage within that sample, and looking at how each variable correlated with overall goal ratio in an independently selected 40 game sample. As with the first table, the numbers here are the averaged values over 1000 trials.<br /><br />The predictive validity of each variable is commensurate with its reliability co-efficient, with corsi having the most predictive validity. In other words, a team's score tied corsi over a 40 game sample is a better indicator of how it will perform over the remainder of its schedule than is score tied fenwick or score tied shot percentage.<br /><br />Of course, the fact that corsi has the most predictive validity in <span style="font-style: italic;">practice</span> doesn't necessarily mean that it serves as the best measure of team skill in <span style="font-style: italic;">theory</span>. As discussed in a previous post, the observed correlation between two variables is contingent upon the reliability with which each variable can be measured. Fortunately, there exists a formula that can be used to calculate what the correlation between two variables would be if each could be measured with perfect reliability. That formula involves dividing the observed correlation by the product of each variable's reliability co-efficient.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">r xy adjusted = r xy observed/ SQRT( reliability x * reliability y)<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">As we already have the split-half reliability co-efficients for all of the variables, we only need to determine the split-half correlations between score tied corsi, score tied fenwick and score tied shot percentage, on the one hand, and goal ratio, on the other.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtIHoBBJ-ntJWcKA_4-PGbfVbx1n_QCDUS9IBsqyFk7vh5JwTOp2exlphCEdU0QR_8Yk_1fvXlzq5Df7gOalRIcXdBSIWm2iAtTuoecopW-pu8j_NWF2lYEXonFtrDxK6l_sBqkV3SeiHV/s1600/goalratiocfshalfseason.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 187px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtIHoBBJ-ntJWcKA_4-PGbfVbx1n_QCDUS9IBsqyFk7vh5JwTOp2exlphCEdU0QR_8Yk_1fvXlzq5Df7gOalRIcXdBSIWm2iAtTuoecopW-pu8j_NWF2lYEXonFtrDxK6l_sBqkV3SeiHV/s400/goalratiocfshalfseason.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574453096043869538" border="0" /></a>After inputting all of the relevant variables into the above formula, the following values are obtained:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_luq9AyJfzMi3JH8Jmug_7JNXZB8hH5vCDaLAP693Q41lzrIbVjFuhP_xluS9eITdBPC_MxFcpiNO1iY6obfJDvz3LJsy6BH9hXGTPPg9hJJbnbezcP0RIpf9bdcaJdDsXsR9kQOG8IL2/s1600/truecorrelationgoalratiocfs.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 188px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_luq9AyJfzMi3JH8Jmug_7JNXZB8hH5vCDaLAP693Q41lzrIbVjFuhP_xluS9eITdBPC_MxFcpiNO1iY6obfJDvz3LJsy6BH9hXGTPPg9hJJbnbezcP0RIpf9bdcaJdDsXsR9kQOG8IL2/s400/truecorrelationgoalratiocfs.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574458207819093506" border="0" /></a><br />Therefore, while corsi has more predictive validity with respect to goal ratio at the within-season level, fenwick and shot percentage appear to correlate more strongly with goal ratio over a sufficiently large sample of games. In other words, in theory, both fenwick and shot percentage seem to serve as better measures of team quality than corsi does.<br /><br />One caveat: the differences between the values here are small, and we only have three seasons of data. It may very well be that all three variables correlate equally well with goal ratio over the long run. This subject may require further study in the future when more data is available.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div></div>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com57tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-36260999541370468452011-02-11T10:08:00.000-08:002011-03-04T20:08:47.255-08:00EV Data for Games 1-820<iframe src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0Au1LsKurscG2dFNIQkhEWk1xdmEzR0NBbWJ2MU8tUHc&output=html&widget=true" width="800" frameborder="0" height="700"></iframe><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">[If you're having difficulty viewing the document, click </span><a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au1LsKurscG2dFNIQkhEWk1xdmEzR0NBbWJ2MU8tUHc&hl=en&authkey=CKzSpa4F"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="font-style: italic;">here</span></span></a><span style="font-style: italic;"> to view the spreadsheet directly at googledocs.]</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Notes</span><br /><br />The document contains three worksheets. The first sheet shows even strength data for all situations. The second shows even strength data for when the score was close (i.e. whenever the score margin was 1 or 0 in the first two periods, or tied in the third period or overtime). The last sheet contains data for when the score was tied.<br /><br />Empty net goals have been removed from the data.<br /><br />I didn't make an adjustment for schedule difficulty this go around because - and this is embarassing - when I recently performed a system restore, I forgot to transfer that particular file to my external hard drive. Having said that:<br /><br />1. There seems to be more interest in the raw numbers.<br /><br />2. The schedule adjustment would be negligible for most teams at this point in the season.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Missing Games List</span><br /><br />Game 124 - WSH@CAR<br />Game 429 - ATL@NYI<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Abbreviations </span><br /><br />GF: goals for<br />GA: goals against<br />SF: shots for, where shots = goals + saved shots<br />SA: shots against<br />SHOT%: shots for/(shots for + shots against)<br />SH%: shooting percentage<br />SV%: save percentage<br />PDO: shooting percentage + save percentage<br />FF: fenwick for, where fenwick = shots + missed shots<br />FA: fenwick against<br />F%: fenwick for/ (fenwick for + fenwick against)<br />CF: corsi for, where corsi = shots + missed shots + blocked shots<br />CA: corsi against<br />C%: corsi for/ (corsi for + corsi against)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-40469774181914143282011-01-26T00:29:00.000-08:002011-02-15T23:22:43.498-08:00Even Strength Outshooting and Team Quality<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Readers familiar with the team even strength data that I've published over the course of the season might wonder why I seem to place a large amount of emphasis on even strength shot ratio with the score tied.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >After all, only about 35% of league play occurs with the score tied. And of that 35%, one-fifth consists of special teams play. Taken together, that means that time played at even strength with the score tied represents less than 30% of a typical NHL game.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Indeed, if we examine the relationship between a team's even strength shot ratio with the score tied and it's overall goal ratio for every season since the lockout, we find an average correlation of 0.556, meaning that even strength shot ratio only accounts for roughly 30% of the variance in outscoring with respect to a single NHL season.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKncwk737zgExsvm3F-O5P3FaWKmSe4GF2TsbA2Wc141PcCZ2oY-ueCT1v-P8f2glVbRDKNVzdFSPhjaZdbFvNLays13dM50kHzDSui_k2i2Qs_Nuae8-BomroXyevFODRkp4vG3IwNbFn/s1600/relationshipEVshotratiogoalratio.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 325px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKncwk737zgExsvm3F-O5P3FaWKmSe4GF2TsbA2Wc141PcCZ2oY-ueCT1v-P8f2glVbRDKNVzdFSPhjaZdbFvNLays13dM50kHzDSui_k2i2Qs_Nuae8-BomroXyevFODRkp4vG3IwNbFn/s400/relationshipEVshotratiogoalratio.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574152432629402866" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXlfZ3EdKqbSHRc811HzOptzUToZBTTg1-US6k_o1ki7pg58ChID0GhaROJo3oBqIdd1mhv5bCoLaFliDGpLMN4J2n0tSLmVRuGmJURGpgRtCARBEANGM112sakOrjBbxKwB8uSxCM8d-H/s1600/observedcorrelationGREVSRT.bmp"><br /></a><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >However, because goals in the modern-day NHL are relatively rare events, a substantial proportion of the team-to-team variation in seasonal goal ratio can be attributed to luck. For example, random variation accounted for 47, 35, and 41 percent of team variation in goal ratio in 2007-08, 2009-10 and 2009-10, respectively.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >In a hypothetical season with a sufficiently long schedule, that random variation would eventually disappear, leaving each team with a goal ratio commensurate with its abilities. What each team's goal ratio might look like in such a scenario can be approximated by taking its seasonal statistics - namely, shot ratio, shooting percentage and save percentage - and adjusting them to account for the extent to which each one is affected by random variation.* For both shooting and save percentage, the adjustment is significant as luck accounts for a majority of the variation in respect of both over the course of a single season, as indicated in the table below.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHMmQORlcvqpsLVWLCmJoSZu5B1qGNihpsOJ8kwe_iTXf0AI6463iueW4d_rnQFYFU-kLmqN-3SWb7G5cKBsFR-Y7UUG45WAykBFv4risxCMqBE3lSVxfPCC3Spuu9zg8auSqxPF8USAV-/s1600/averageluckvariance.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 137px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHMmQORlcvqpsLVWLCmJoSZu5B1qGNihpsOJ8kwe_iTXf0AI6463iueW4d_rnQFYFU-kLmqN-3SWb7G5cKBsFR-Y7UUG45WAykBFv4risxCMqBE3lSVxfPCC3Spuu9zg8auSqxPF8USAV-/s400/averageluckvariance.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566677460830368802" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >For shot ratio, however, the adjustment is less severe as the impact of randomness is comparatively smaller. Consequently, as the sample size increases, so too does the correlation between shot ratio and goal ratio.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >If this exercise is performed for each post-lockout season, one is able to determine the relationship between true goal ratio and even strength shot ratio with the score tied. The results:**</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /><a style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqEgxqvTAxdLe2X5SxtDizI-KtHi1EXK3KSbV1G8DajCYOeC7Geapy-8yEsZvKPFyeTXNzviIl-Q2llwSmIwev1JMS18-lHkaKBZp2xlrFQDuKQY8stJNRL5GdL9_ZGbMGiuk0wGtFXHRl/s1600/truerelationship.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 322px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqEgxqvTAxdLe2X5SxtDizI-KtHi1EXK3KSbV1G8DajCYOeC7Geapy-8yEsZvKPFyeTXNzviIl-Q2llwSmIwev1JMS18-lHkaKBZp2xlrFQDuKQY8stJNRL5GdL9_ZGbMGiuk0wGtFXHRl/s400/truerelationship.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566671755550062866" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Therefore, in an imaginary league in which luck is a complete non-factor, EV shot ratio with the score tied would account for roughly 65% of the variance in outscoring. In other words, even though the two variables may not be strongly correlated over the course of a single season, a team's EV shot ratio with the score tied serves as a reasonably good indicator of how it can be expected to perform over the long run. This is especially true for the three most recent seasons, in which EV shot ratio accounts for 75% of the variation in outscoring ability. It seems that as the level of parity between teams has increased, even strength shooting has become even more important.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Finally, the remaining 35% of outscoring variance indicates that there are other sustainable components of team success. Apportioning the remaining proportion of the variance between these components gives us an idea of their relative importance.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /><a style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQUip-g3pKTdGBqp34yVKCvUHt2R3ll-IKUyKwZaZet4O4Yjb6SFAiETQYTM8MGb8eOgEZ2ybZXxturpUeViSisvSYKoc-Ws8dBhecRLNRqFYGtR2C0iAyERTtPOLyX9N0Mu5Xs6GK2w3K/s1600/remainingvariance.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 120px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQUip-g3pKTdGBqp34yVKCvUHt2R3ll-IKUyKwZaZet4O4Yjb6SFAiETQYTM8MGb8eOgEZ2ybZXxturpUeViSisvSYKoc-Ws8dBhecRLNRqFYGtR2C0iAyERTtPOLyX9N0Mu5Xs6GK2w3K/s400/remainingvariance.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566673416558880098" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >As special teams ability and EV tied shot ratio are correlated variables, residual special teams skill refers to the proportion of special teams skill that cannot be accounted for by EV tied shot ratio. Residual specials teams skill accounts for about 49% of the remaining variance. </span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >Similarly, residual EV shot ratio refers to the proportion of even strength outshooting that cannot be predicted by EV shot ratio. This accounts for 7% of the remaining variance.</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" >The rest of the remaining variance is explained by even strength shooting, even strength save percentage and residual variance. Residual variance is the amount of variance left over after subtracting the sum of the other four components from 1. It results from the fact that the four components are not uncorrelated, independent variables. </span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /><br /><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:85%;" >* even strength and special teams statistics were, of course, treated separately for this part of the analysis<br /><br />**There is an alternative calculation that can be applied as a check on the correctness of these values. As the seasonal reliability of both goal ratio and EV tied shot ratio is imperfect, it is necessary to upwardly adjust the observed correlations between the two variables in order to ascertain their 'true' relationship - that is, the correlation that would result if each variable was perfectly reliable.<br /><br />The adjustment involves dividing the observed correlation by the square root of the product of each variable's reliability co-efficient. In other words<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: center; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size:85%;">r adjusted = r observed/ SQRT( reliability EV tied shot ratio* reliability goal ratio )<br /></span></div><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:85%;" ><br />The application of the above formula involves determining the reliability co-efficients for each variable, which can be calculated as follows:<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: center; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size:85%;">reliability = 1- [(1- split half reliability)/SQRT(2)]<br /><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size:85%;">If these formulae are applied with respect to each post-lockout season, the following results:<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-aHxrj1IxfLI9gm-1O4hLjsaEWDf4wpkn8plyitqoQNayS1pPXst3wPHHeWzu_wkS1krU4PuAx-2viymJWIhXFU8JDIPF_494B46aw-cfZXYFDBcu_Ltxrwqt2vNt4unf7qFfeRfu3nIR/s1600/disattentuatedcorrelations.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 120px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-aHxrj1IxfLI9gm-1O4hLjsaEWDf4wpkn8plyitqoQNayS1pPXst3wPHHeWzu_wkS1krU4PuAx-2viymJWIhXFU8JDIPF_494B46aw-cfZXYFDBcu_Ltxrwqt2vNt4unf7qFfeRfu3nIR/s400/disattentuatedcorrelations.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5567023067834882962" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span></div></div><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:85%;" >The average adjusted correlation is 0.81, which is comparable to the average adjusted correlation obtained through the first method (0.804). It should be noted that this second method is likely to slightly overestimate the true correlation, given that the two variables are not truly independent.<br /><br />EDIT: Accidentally used Fenwick ratio instead of Shot ratio when determining observed correlations for 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10. Table and accompanying discussion has been edited accordingly.<br /><br />EDIT 2: In re-thinking the method used in the alternative calculation, it occurred to me that the better way to adjust the observed correlations would be to calculate all three input values at the half-season level.<br /><br />There's no sense in using the split-half reliabilities in order to estimate the full reason reliabilities for EV shot ratio and goal ratio when the split-half reliabilities can be used themselves, given that the split-half correlation between EV shot ratio and goal ratio is readily ascertained.<br /><br />This approach produced the following results.*<br /><br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_umLob_bkUq9jBhEYuzmlx26G3uxBKgwcSM5tdnxxO6zHx02Z5kv2Tj5C76MsIyfTSnP66hTrlTqHABb3_UcGPYJazLLhQBIwnak8fISi0thFChyphenhyphenGRcbWbq6xhqzrlc_UCMWX853IZJW8/s1600/disattenuatedcorrelations2.bmp"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 118px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_umLob_bkUq9jBhEYuzmlx26G3uxBKgwcSM5tdnxxO6zHx02Z5kv2Tj5C76MsIyfTSnP66hTrlTqHABb3_UcGPYJazLLhQBIwnak8fISi0thFChyphenhyphenGRcbWbq6xhqzrlc_UCMWX853IZJW8/s400/disattenuatedcorrelations2.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574181018922125394" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:85%;">* the half-season values were calculated through randomly selecting 40 games, randomly selecting another 40 games without replacement, and determining the correlation between the relevant variables across the data sets. This was repeated 1000 times, with the average values </span><span style="font-size:85%;">used.<br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size:100%;" ><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:85%;" >.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size:85%;" >.</span><br /></span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-84599456873309644752011-01-19T15:07:00.000-08:002011-01-20T17:47:01.290-08:00EV Data for Games 1 - 692The spreadsheet that should appear below contains detailed EV data at the team level for games 1 to 692. As NHL.com has inexplicably failed to publish play-by-play data for the following games, they were not included:<br /><br />Game 124 - WSH@CAR<br />Game 429 - ATL@NYI<br />Game 491 - PHX@PIT*<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">*The play-by-play feed for this game was initially available, but is no longer accessible. Consequently, I have EV and EV close data for this game, but no EV tied data.</span><br /><br /><iframe src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Au1LsKurscG2dGM3emduTmdaaUkzQkpZOUhQcm1ZNFE&hl=en&output=html&widget=true" width="800" frameborder="0" height="700"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">[If you're having difficulty viewing the document, click </span><a style="font-style: italic;" href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au1LsKurscG2dGM3emduTmdaaUkzQkpZOUhQcm1ZNFE&hl=en#gid=0">here</a><span style="font-style: italic;"> to view the spreadsheet directly at googledocs.]</span></span><br /><br />A couple of points:<br /><br />The document contains three worksheets. The first sheet shows even strength data for all situations. The second shows even strength data for when the score was close (i.e. whenever the score margin was 1 or 0 in the first two periods, or tied in the third period or overtime). The last sheet contains data for when the score was tied.<br /><br />Empty net goals have been removed from the data.<br /><br />The abbreviations are defined as follows:<br /><br />GF: goals for<br />GA: goals against<br />SF: shots for, where shots = goals + saved shots<br />SA: shots against<br />SHOT%: shots for/(shots for + shots against)<br />SH%: shooting percentage<br />SV%: save percentage<br />PDO: shooting percentage + save percentage<br />FF: fenwick for, where fenwick = shots + missed shots<br />FA: fenwick against<br />F%: fenwick for/ (fenwick for + fenwick against)<br />CF: corsi for, where corsi = shots + missed shots + blocked shots<br />CA: corsi against<br />C%: corsi for/ (corsi for + corsi against)<br />ADJ: refers to the fact that an adjustment for schedule difficulty has been made. See <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/11/adjusted-corsi-update-and-goalposts.html">here</a> for the details of the adjustment process.<br /><br />Finally, as mentioned earlier, I've included EV tied data in this go around. The reason for that is that it appears that score effects are still very much relevant when the score margin is 1 in the first two periods. For example, consider the table below which shows how teams trailing by one goal in the first two periods have performed with respect to shot percentage and PDO over the last three seasons.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiiD1DSFQjcebzhcGXkU8EOBw8rCQNf_V_je4i-iTieJu5vbCU5X7trf2cKhQyakUkmOT_fPrVMdWFFZ0R9bVaKacQZL_p0W22rymXVqdT5wLO1HFmeI3ZsW_HybtxQQaPs0NY9mRRN3LK/s1600/Trailing+-1+Periods+12.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 30px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiiD1DSFQjcebzhcGXkU8EOBw8rCQNf_V_je4i-iTieJu5vbCU5X7trf2cKhQyakUkmOT_fPrVMdWFFZ0R9bVaKacQZL_p0W22rymXVqdT5wLO1HFmeI3ZsW_HybtxQQaPs0NY9mRRN3LK/s400/Trailing+-1+Periods+12.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5564045894007781106" border="0" /></a>In other words, teams trailing by one goal in the first two periods tend to play more aggressively, which increases their shot differential yet hurts their PDO. Additionally, there appear to be strategic differences between teams with respect to style of play when the score margin is one in the first two periods. That's a topic that I plan to explore in more detail in the upcoming weeks.<br /><br />The result of all of this is that Fenwick or Corsi percentage with the score tied should be a better measure of a team's true ability to control the play at even strength, given that EV score close shot statistics tend to favor teams that play more from behind and/or play more aggressively, relative to the average team, when leading or trailing by one in the first two periods.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-77335396673790941102011-01-04T23:12:00.000-08:002011-01-05T03:02:43.260-08:00East vs West Follow UpIn my <a href="http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/12/east-might-be-better-conference.html">last post</a>, I included a detailed breakdown of how the two conferences have matched up against one another so far this season and, on the basis of the data, concluded that there wasn't much to choose between them, the West's superior record notwithstanding.<br /><br />My conclusion was implicitly premised on the assumption that there's no significant skill difference between the two conferences with respect to shooting or save percentage. The rationale behind that assumption was that, while there are talent differences between teams in terms of the percentages, those differences should cancel out when comparing large groups of teams. Without taking a further look at the data, however, it's impossible to determine whether or not the assumption relied on is true.<br /><br />In determining the above issue, I think that it might be helpful to look at data from interconference games over the last six seasons. I'd delve back further in time, but 2003-04 is the oldest season for which I have advanced statistics at the team level. It's well established that the West dominated the East over this timeframe, as evidenced by the table below. The West had the better record in each of the six seasons examined, with an aggregate winning percentage of 0.54. That's only slightly better than what one would expect on the basis of their goal ratio (its expected winning percentage was 0.536).<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC7f2LtjvkkhEaHVqqDFnkKLNo7FjmQSpJJyCnWusdjkEkVcCCyIQe7UqC4lAY4hWKWMm5L2C2VF_l4MzROQ2tiZLkXYAwVLPx8R0bM4E9jFCfKFoHZmWv-k-fHSBJcZI5zxnrrojUNVd3/s1600/EastvWestRecordGoals.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 144px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC7f2LtjvkkhEaHVqqDFnkKLNo7FjmQSpJJyCnWusdjkEkVcCCyIQe7UqC4lAY4hWKWMm5L2C2VF_l4MzROQ2tiZLkXYAwVLPx8R0bM4E9jFCfKFoHZmWv-k-fHSBJcZI5zxnrrojUNVd3/s400/EastvWestRecordGoals.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558598374945213506" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;">[The % column indicates the number of percentage of East wins/goals/shots/powerplay opportunities as a percentage of overall wins/goals/shots/powerplay opportunities. For the post-lockout seasons, games that went to a shootout are considered ties. Empty nets goals have been removed from the data.]</span><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;">In order to determine the nature of the West's dominance, however, it becomes necessary to take a more granular look at the data. This can be achieved through looking at how each conference has done in terms of shots and the percentages, through breaking down the data by game situation (even strength and special teams), and through looking at data from when the score was tied in order to identify and/or control for playing to the score effects.<br /><br /></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLcvxzaborePAOj4AVUPvqpmlztzNM-txylXrDtHRKCvkHo0ForvE2NxLNT_0Qd9CLirEnEYDpaMFCFBYUfLFnGfKaYD3srTLJak8ueQqDecCEABWD9jcYJc8AX3jHm99dji2eFA5c5V5C/s1600/EastvWestEV.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 92px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLcvxzaborePAOj4AVUPvqpmlztzNM-txylXrDtHRKCvkHo0ForvE2NxLNT_0Qd9CLirEnEYDpaMFCFBYUfLFnGfKaYD3srTLJak8ueQqDecCEABWD9jcYJc8AX3jHm99dji2eFA5c5V5C/s400/EastvWestEV.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558598381089003890" border="0" /></a></div></div><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvaTuNAkCMsSJwgSFXMMbOlikZhLCAHjXuvPX5_IQaBcPL65nO0QDQ8pX_Y-fjO-GzzoceZc6fEEChWSDzqL2morrlog6bRTjRxTc5E690qzTiDqMTag6BTMuMWFdjGDJszyPDPY4DQsa/s1600/EastvWestEVTIED.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 93px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyvaTuNAkCMsSJwgSFXMMbOlikZhLCAHjXuvPX5_IQaBcPL65nO0QDQ8pX_Y-fjO-GzzoceZc6fEEChWSDzqL2morrlog6bRTjRxTc5E690qzTiDqMTag6BTMuMWFdjGDJszyPDPY4DQsa/s400/EastvWestEVTIED.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558598382786172530" border="0" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJXeRtLRSbtUWe-clH0i97BJ3POlrUaIldfuOChYBeHoyaWODDHYPomkn3JQdBtraE3WdOo7yQmUjHJr9cUKk92Zm_8OPZAWOGCILT2nSicwZReHCwwmwLeAQrcCfwLgkx5PGJavzwRI-F/s1600/EastvWestSpecialTeams.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 116px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJXeRtLRSbtUWe-clH0i97BJ3POlrUaIldfuOChYBeHoyaWODDHYPomkn3JQdBtraE3WdOo7yQmUjHJr9cUKk92Zm_8OPZAWOGCILT2nSicwZReHCwwmwLeAQrcCfwLgkx5PGJavzwRI-F/s400/EastvWestSpecialTeams.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558598385906946530" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">[I elected not to include data on shorthanded shots and goals given that shorthanded scoring is neither an important nor sustainable component of team success].<br /><br /></span>The first thing one might notice is that the West did better than the East across the board - both at even strength and on special teams, and both in terms of shots and the percentages. It was also a fair bit better on drawing penalties, which is noteworthy given that NHL referees tend to favor the trailing team -- Eastern teams presumably would have spent more time playing from behind than Western teams during the games sampled.<br /><br />However, while the West has technically outperformed the East in respect of shooting percentage, the difference is marginal. Indeed, there's effectively no difference at all at even strength, and while the difference in terms of PP SH% is larger, it's not necessarily reflective of an underlying talent advantage. For example, if the two conferences had the same "true" PP SH%, one would expect one conference to have an advantage of at least 0.004 approximately 50% of the time.<br /><br />Similarly, the fact that one conference tended to outperform the other in terms of EV SH% in specific seasons should not be construed as meaningful. Random variation requires an average difference of 0.00468 when comparing the shooting percentage of one conference to the other. The actual value? 0.00467. <br /><br />The success of the Western teams was driven primarily by its outshooting advantage, and this was true at both even strength and on the powerplay. The fact that the data for this season shows no such advantage for Western teams suggests to me that it may no longer be the better conference. While it's true that the West has done better than the East in relation to the percentages, it's difficult to interpret that as a difference in underlying skill for the reasons outlined above.<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">.</span>JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com4