tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post6598945170832561672..comments2024-03-20T08:45:46.965-07:00Comments on Objective NHL: Shot Recording Bias: Florida and New JerseyJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-57842656273495894272013-05-03T14:33:20.086-07:002013-05-03T14:33:20.086-07:00Well it is something that you don't want to fi...Well it is something that you don't want to find. Discrepancies even though they aren't good but you can find interesting things. Host Pay Per Headhttp://www.hostpph.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-40126103658321344262012-03-05T03:39:01.958-08:002012-03-05T03:39:01.958-08:00Hen Party London experience can give you glamour, ...<a href="http://www.thestarfactory.co.uk" rel="nofollow">Hen Party London</a> experience can give you glamour, sophistication and the ability to replay your single or pop video at the actual wedding! This hen party experience will stay with all of you forever and will only be a DVD player a way.Hen Party Londonhttp://www.thestarfactory.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-49542975789337848502012-03-03T01:30:27.124-08:002012-03-03T01:30:27.124-08:00Resident started in 2001 by taking over the ailing...Resident started in 2001 by taking over the ailing Stepping Stone Studios, which was at one time a leading studio in the busy Willesden music scene and had a substantial studio complex, albeit deserted. <a href="http://www.residentstudios.com" rel="nofollow">London Recording Studios</a>.London Recording Studioshttp://www.residentstudios.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-72455006624424838212010-01-04T18:00:37.613-08:002010-01-04T18:00:37.613-08:00Sunny:
Yeah, I was thinking about which value I s...Sunny:<br /><br />Yeah, I was thinking about which value I should use for the hypothetical mean. <br /><br />While I ultimately elected to use the aggregate road SH% in Devils road games, those values look to be a little low -- almost a whole percentage point below the league average SH%. It's possible -- maybe even likely -- that the true shooting percentage in Devils home games is closer to the league average (both at EV with the score tied and EV generally).<br /><br />Vic:<br /><br />Interesting point about Sutter. I suppose the difference in coaching styles is capable of explaining why the percentage discrepancy persists even though the shot gap has closed. <br /><br />It seems, then, that the bias continues to operate.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-88248494406229303842010-01-03T22:51:29.856-08:002010-01-03T22:51:29.856-08:00Olivier,
I think there were a lot of things that ...Olivier,<br /><br />I think there were a lot of things that changed around the coaching change. And probably Therrien wasn't a very good coach, either.<br /><br />Mostly Gonchar coming back and Crosby playing healthy after a rough year, I think. The big change in underlying numbers came in where Malkin's shifts were ending. I guessed at the time that Bylsma may have "gotten through to him". But seeing some of the playoffs, Malkin got a whack of chances in the first 10 seconds of coming onto the ice after a Crosby shift. Having Sid healthy and able to play PvP would send a huge ripple down that lineup.<br /><br />I've never checked to see if that was the case in the regular season games after Bylsma took over, but that's what I would guess. Just my sense of it.Vic Ferrarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425585921916867277noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-72565271628599095592010-01-03T22:45:07.290-08:002010-01-03T22:45:07.290-08:00Sunny:
Just generally, a lot of teams want to pla...Sunny:<br /><br />Just generally, a lot of teams want to play a more entertaining style on home ice. Especially if the rink isn't sold out.<br /><br />If you don't care about that, then the road team is more likely to oblige.<br /><br />When VAN rolls into Nashville the GM, coach and ownership probably all want to see some high event hockey.<br /><br />When NSH rolls into VAN, especially if they are tired, they're going to be happier to play the game 10 feet off the boards and keep things at a slower pace. And since that's the way Vigneault like's to play it ... probably what you'll see.<br /><br />So I suspect that there still was undercounting of shots in N.J in 07/08 and 08/09. And I suspect that if you went through the H2H icetimes for a bunch of N.J games, you'd see that Parise played tougher minutes on home ice.<br /><br />Just a theory, but it would mesh with Brent Sutter's style.Vic Ferrarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425585921916867277noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-88896285016322518222010-01-03T22:33:18.884-08:002010-01-03T22:33:18.884-08:00Vic, that's an interesting point and it leads ...Vic, that's an interesting point and it leads me to ask a question around: remembering last year's comments on the arrival of Blysma with Pittsburgh, some commenter noted Therrien's teams had an habit of getting outshot. Are shots, as a metric, enough to tell us something of the abilities/style of a coach?Olivierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18280119238261445564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-65670494760482918432010-01-03T22:17:57.776-08:002010-01-03T22:17:57.776-08:00Vic,
Agreed on the Sutter point. He was also prec...Vic,<br /><br />Agreed on the Sutter point. He was also preceded by Julien, so his changes look even more drastic. Couple questions.<br /><br />1) Why do you think the opponent is more likely to oblige in the home team arena, and how much difference do you think it can hypothetically make? <br /><br />2) Can you think of a reason why Sh% and Sv% numbers would be affected by that? A few months ago I noticed the huge gap in the Devils' home/road EV Sh% last season, but the thing is, they led the league in EV goals at home - hard to cry bias there. Do we have any reason to believe teams can be more efficient in goal scoring based on whether they're home or on the road?Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-47279318799988419862010-01-03T16:27:20.824-08:002010-01-03T16:27:20.824-08:00Terrific work, JLikens.
07/08 and 08/09 are years...Terrific work, JLikens.<br /><br />07/08 and 08/09 are years when Brent Sutter coached in New Jersey. He prefers a more uptempo game, as evidenced by his preference to go power vs power instead of using a checking line.<br /><br />I mean if you prefer a slower pace of game, the opponent is more likely to oblige in your rink. I think that if we looked at games between VAN, STL and ANA vs the southeast division ... the games played in the east were generally more open and entertaining and featured more shots at net.<br /><br />Does that make sense?Vic Ferrarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425585921916867277noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-10244601841521653902010-01-03T10:34:34.812-08:002010-01-03T10:34:34.812-08:00Good stuff, J.
Even though there were more shots ...Good stuff, J.<br /><br />Even though there were more shots recorded at home in NJ in the last two seasons doesn't necessarily mean there wasn't bias. (I.e. it's possible that maybe even MORE shots should've been counted.)<br /><br />The 08-09 home/road EV Sh% discrepancy is pretty crazy. If we use the Road number as our hypothetical mean, the home number is way out of range. But if some other number in between is our hypothetical mean, it's possible that chance made it so that we ended up with two numbers on opposite sides of the bell curve. (Of course another explanation is that the Devils have an ability to score goals at home better than other teams do - dubious.)<br /><br />This leads me to want to see that type of chart for every team, and to know what league average EV Sh% was on the road and at home. It might give us a better idea of where to place the hypothetical mean.Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.com