tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post5438346046646495676..comments2014-03-10T21:33:42.349-07:00Comments on Objective NHL: Loose Ends - Part III A: The Power PlayJLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-46534806786316790392013-05-03T12:51:37.962-07:002013-05-03T12:51:37.962-07:00don't worry. everybody can make a mistake. it ...don't worry. everybody can make a mistake. it is part of the every day life. at least you were aware about it. Hostpph.comhttp://www.hostpph.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-70314364660558134732011-04-08T12:19:12.072-07:002011-04-08T12:19:12.072-07:00Good question, Jeff.
Team variation in EV shot pe...Good question, Jeff.<br /><br />Team variation in EV shot percentage over the course of a single season is approximately 90% skill and 10% luck (at least, that's been the case since the lockout).<br /><br />In 2009-10, the observed standard deviation in EV shot percentage was 0.0207. Therefore, the standard deviation in outshooting talent was 0.0204, and a team one standard deviation in outshooting talent would have an EV shot percentage of 0.524. <br /><br />For every 1000 shots taken by a team with a shot percentage of 0.524, its opponent would take 907.2, and it would therefore outshoot the opposition by 92.8 shots. <br /><br />If its EV save and shooting percentage were both league average (0.08), that would translate to an expected net goal differential of 7.43 goals. <br /><br />So 8 goals seems to be a pretty good estimate.JLikenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3299311926633621468.post-70519553657378214472011-04-08T05:32:43.984-07:002011-04-08T05:32:43.984-07:00EV SH% – 2.64
PP SH% – 1.43
Very nice.
I want to...<i>EV SH% – 2.64<br />PP SH% – 1.43</i><br /><br />Very nice.<br /><br />I want to focus on that 2.64 EV goals per 100 shots. Just to play the devil's advocate, how does that number compare to the expected goal differential of a team with league average shooting talent and outshooting talent that is one SD better than average?<br /><br />Just looking at this year's data, +1 SD in outshooting gives you 2.9 shots per 60. Using league average sh% of 8.2% and 29.7 shots/60, that adds up to 8 goals per 1000 shots for. Only 3x the effect of shooting talent. And that is assuming outshooting is 100% skill and 0% luck.Jeff Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00515298169372460142noreply@blogger.com